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Forecasting.

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"This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policymaking across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policymaking. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters- the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies and IR"--

Forecasting.

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Public sector balance sheets provide the most comprehensive picture of public wealth. They bring together all the accumulated assets and liabilities that the government controls, including public corporations, natural resources, and pension liabilities. They thus account for the entirety of what the state owns and owes, offering a broader fiscal picture beyond debt and deficits. Most governments do not provide such transparency, thereby avoiding the additional scrutiny it brings. Better balance sheet management enables countries to increase revenues, reduce risks, and improve fiscal policymaking. There is some empirical evidence that financial markets are increasingly paying attention to the entire government balance sheet and that strong balance sheets enhance economic resilience. This issue of the Fiscal Monitor presents a new database that shows comprehensive estimates of public sector assets and liabilities for a broad sample of 31 countries, covering 61 percent of the global economy, and provides tools to analyze and manage public wealth. Estimates of public wealth reveal the full scale of public assets and liabilities. Assets are worth US101 trillion or 219 percent of GDP in the sample. This includes 120 percent of GDP in public corporation assets. Also included are natural resources that average 110 percent of GDP among the large natural-resource-producing countries. Recognizing these assets does not negate the vulnerabilities associated with the standard measure of general government public debt, comprising 94 percent of GDP for these countries. This is only half of total public sector liabilities of 198 percent of GDP, which also includes 46 percent of GDP in already accrued pension liabilities. Once governments understand the size and nature of public assets, they can start managing them more effectively. Potential gains from better asset management are considerable. Revenue gains from nonfinancial public corporations and government financial assets alone could be as high as 3 percent of GDP a year, equivalent to annual corporate tax collections across advanced economies. In addition, considerable gains could be realized from government nonfinancial assets. Public assets are a significant resource, and how governments use and report on them matters, not just for financial reasons, but also in terms of improving service delivery and preventing the misuse of resources that often results from a lack of transparency.

Forecasting

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Après une décennie marquée par une croissance dynamique soutenue par les exportations, une baisse du chômage et des excédents budgétaires, la pandémie de COVID-19 et la crise énergétique ont mis au jour des faiblesses structurelles et fait ressortir la nécessité d'accélérer les transitions écologique et numérique. Dans le même temps, le vieillissement rapide de la population accentue les tensions sur les dépenses publiques et exacerbe les pénuries de main-d'œuvre qualifiée. Il est essentiel de réduire l'imposition du travail, en particulier pour les bas revenus et les deuxièmes apporteurs de revenu, de faciliter l'immigration de personnes qualifiées et d'améliorer l'éducation et la formation pour accroître l'offre de main-d'œuvre. Moderniser l'administration publique de façon à alléger la charge administrative et améliorer la qualité des services publics permettraient de favoriser l'innovation et la dynamique des entreprises. Afin de répondre aux besoins d'investissement considérables tout en préservant la viabilité des finances publiques, les autorités allemandes devront réduire les dépenses fiscales, qui sont souvent source de distorsions, régressives ou préjudiciables à l'environnement, et renforcer l'application de la législation fiscale, mais aussi accroître l'efficience des dépenses publiques et mieux hiérarchiser les priorités en la matière. Parvenir à la neutralité climatique en 2045 tout en préservant la compétitivité et la cohésion sociale nécessitera la mise en œuvre de politiques d'atténuation présentant un bon rapport coût-efficacité. L'Allemagne devrait renforcer la tarification du carbone et compléter ce dispositif par une réglementation sectorielle et des subventions judicieusement conçues, notamment pour stimuler la recherche-développement verte, développer les infrastructures de transport et réseaux d'électricité durables et décarboner le secteur du logement. L'utilisation des recettes issues de la tarification du carbone pour distribuer des aides aux ménages vulnérables et améliorer la qualité des politiques actives du marché du travail contribuerait à préserver la cohésion sociale.

Economic forecasting --- Economic forecasting.

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Forecasting. --- Forecasting. --- Prévision