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Chris Demchak explores the reasons why military machines surprise their users and how they can change both the complexity and effectiveness of tactical organizations. She uses the Army's experiences with its M1 Abrams tank, as well as other examples, to explain the interaction of complex technology and militaries that seek to control uncertainty. Under some conditions, Demchak demonstrates, complexity in critical machines induces increased complexity in the organizations that use them, and can produce an army different from the one that was intended. Drawing on organization theory and her data, she argues that understanding this interaction will heavily influence whether armed forces reductions, savings, and modernization produce rapid, successful military organizations or lethally unpredictable ones.
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The U.S. Army has made the development of new concepts for land warfare a priority since the early 1980s. Unfortunately, few techniques have been available to help design or evaluate concepts in a rigorous, objective way. This report contains the results of a two-year effort to develop an intellectual framework for thinking about, designing, and evaluating land defense concepts. It is aimed at making the process by which the Army develops and evaluates concepts more rigorous and more efficient. The suggested improvements are of three types: (1) a typology--drawn from Army doctrine, NATO defense plans, and unofficial NATO defense concepts since the late 1940s--that allows different concepts to be described concretely and compared using a common vocabulary; (2) a review of the strengths and weaknesses of the Army's current approach for developing and evaluating concepts (the Concept-Based Requirements System, or CBRS) and a proposed analytic framework to ameliorate some of the shortcomings; and (3) a microcomputer-based, low-resolution Method of Screening Concepts of Warfare (MOSCOW), which can be used to refine and compare concept ideas in a systematic, quantitative way.
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