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All organizations must cope with future uncertainties. These uncertainties affect the strategic choices they make. They must commit scarce organizational resources to future outcomes which they have little assurance will come into being. Marcus explores how decision makers in the energy industry made choices in the face of such uncertainties, specifically examining two major uncertainties they confronted in the 2012-18 period - price volatility and climate change. Marcus tells the story of how different companies in the integrated oil and natural gas sector and in the motor vehicle sector responded to these uncertainties. In the face of these challenges, companies in the energy industry hedged their bets by staking out paradoxical or contrasting positions. On the one hand, they focused on capturing as much gain as they could from the world's current dependence on fossil fuels and on the other hand they made preparations for a future in which fossil fuels might not be the world's dominant energy source.
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William Baird collection in Social Sciences is the gift of the Estate of William Cameron Baird.
Reasoning. --- Logic.
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Today, scientific literacy is an essential aspect of any undergraduate education. Recipes for Science responds to this need by providing an accessible introduction to the nature of science and scientific methods, reasoning, and concepts that is appropriate for any beginning college student. It is designed to be adaptable to a wide variety of different kinds of courses, such as introductions to scientific reasoning or critical thinking, philosophy of science, and science education. In any of these different uses, the book helps students better navigate our scientific, 21st-century world. Key Features Contemporary and historical examples of science from many fields of physical, life, and social sciences. Visual aids to clarify and illustrate ideas. Text boxes to explore related topics. Plenty of exercises to ensure full student engagement and mastery of the information. Annotated 'Further Reading' sections at the end of each chapter. Final glossary with helpful definitions of key terms. A companion website with author-developed and crowdsourced materials, including syllabi for courses using this textbook, bibliography of additional resources and online materials, sharable PowerPoint presentations and lecture notes, and additional exercises and extended projects.
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Many systems of logic diagrams have been offered both historically and more recently. Each of them has clear limitations. An original alternative system is offered here. It is simpler, more natural, and more expressively and inferentially powerful. It can be used to analyze not only syllogisms but arguments involving relational terms and unanalyzed statement terms. The book begins with an extensive survey of the history of logic diagrams, including looking at possible diagrams from Aristotle, the development of both linear and closed figure diagrams by Leibniz, Lambert, Euler, Venn's new system, Peirce's Existential Graphs, and Frege's two-dimensional notation as a kind of logic diagram system. During most of the 20th century, there was little regard for efforts to construct logic diagrams. However, since the 1980s there has been an increasing interest in such diagrams. Ever larger numbers of philosophers, logicians, mathematicians, computational scientists, and cognitive scientists have turned their attention to building, analyzing, using, or exploring in other ways systems of logic diagrams. The system offered here makes use of line segments and points and it enjoys a number of important advantages: it is simple, natural, and both expressively and inferentially powerful. It can be used to analyze syllogisms (including those involving relational terms) and arguments involving unanalyzed statements. Understanding such a system can shed valuable light on how ordinary people naturally reason.
Logic diagrams. --- Aristotle. --- diagrams. --- reasoning.
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This text takes up a central question in jurisprudence: What difference can law make to normative reasons relevant to our actions? Following a critical examination of two competing models, an exclusionary model and a weighing model, Gur proposes a third way that aims to capture the strengths of both of these models while avoiding their pitfalls.
Law --- Practical reason. --- Law (Philosophical concept) --- Philosophy. --- Law (Philosophy) --- Philosophy --- Practical rationality --- Practical reasoning --- Rationality, Practical --- Reasoning, Practical --- Reason --- Jurisprudence
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Réunit les quatre ouvrages écrits par Olivier Houdé pour la collection "Que sais-je ?" : Histoire de la psychologie ; Le raisonnement ; La psychologie de l'enfant ; Les 100 mots de la psychologie Au croisement de la psychologie de l'enfant et des neurosciences cognitives, Olivier Houdé étudie depuis de nombreuses années les mécanismes du développement et de l'apprentissage. En bref : comment raisonne notre cerveau. Après avoir posé les jalons d'une histoire de la psychologie qui va de Platon à Piaget, il propose rien de moins qu'une conception nouvelle du raisonnement qui s'appuie sur des résultats obtenus à l'aide de technologies performantes comme l'IRM, laquelle permet d'observer le cerveau en marche – c'est-à-dire le plus souvent quand il se trompe, s'arrête, doute, reconfigure ses circuits de neurones et corrige ses erreurs.Enfin, à partir d'expériences simples que chacun peut réaliser chez soi ou à l'école, il explique la façon dont se construit la cognition chez l'enfant. Le volume se referme sur un lexique qui donne des définitions essentielles pour comprendre notre architecture cérébrale. Une somme réunissant des ouvrages importants, dans lesquels Olivier Houdé a su mettre le fruit de ses recherches à la portée de tous.
Cognitive neuroscience --- Reasoning --- Child psychology --- Psychologie --- Raisonnement --- Enfants --- Histoire. --- Aspect psychologique. --- Psychologie. --- Cognitive psychology --- Logic
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A new approach to Hume's problem of induction that justifies the optimality of induction at the level of meta-induction. Hume's problem of justifying induction has been among epistemology's greatest challenges for centuries. In this book, Gerhard Schurz proposes a new approach to Hume's problem. Acknowledging the force of Hume's arguments against the possibility of a noncircular justification of the reliability of induction, Schurz demonstrates instead the possibility of a noncircular justification of the optimality of induction, or, more precisely, of meta-induction (the application of induction to competing prediction models). Drawing on discoveries in computational learning theory, Schurz demonstrates that a regret-based learning strategy, attractivity-weighted meta-induction, is predictively optimal in all possible worlds among all prediction methods accessible to the epistemic agent. Moreover, the a priori justification of meta-induction generates a noncircular a posteriori justification of object induction. Taken together, these two results provide a noncircular solution to Hume's problem. Schurz discusses the philosophical debate on the problem of induction, addressing all major attempts at a solution to Hume's problem and describing their shortcomings; presents a series of theorems, accompanied by a description of computer simulations illustrating the content of these theorems (with proofs presented in a mathematical appendix); and defends, refines, and applies core insights regarding the optimality of meta-induction, explaining applications in neighboring disciplines including forecasting sciences, cognitive science, social epistemology, and generalized evolution theory. Finally, Schurz generalizes the method of optimality-based justification to a new strategy of justification in epistemology, arguing that optimality justifications can avoid the problems of justificatory circularity and regress.
Induction (Logic) --- Hume, David, --- Inductive logic --- Logic, Inductive --- Logic --- Reasoning --- Hume, David
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