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The paper updates the analysis of the fiscal policy response over the recent commodity cycle, contributes to the analysis of key drivers of fiscal policy procyclicality, and provides a stock-tacking of current fiscal vulnerabilities. Countercyclical fiscal policy during good times has been a key factor affecting the ability of commodity exporters to sustainably support economic activity when prices started declining. Fiscal space to withstand the next shock has narrowed in many emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) and may also be constrained by contingent liabilities stemming from exposure of state-owned enterprises and public and systemic banks to the commodity-sector. Fiscal consolidation is still necessary in many commodity-exporting EMDEs to reduce debt risks, rebuild fiscal and external buffers, and facilitate access to affordable financing. Fiscal policy should particularly aim at reducing the high volatility of public investment spending in commodity-exporting countries, both in good and bad times.

Commodity Prices --- Debt Management --- Fiscal Policy

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A common criticism of balanced budget fiscal rules is that they increase the consumption volatility of financially constrained households who are unable to smooth consumption. This paper evaluates the welfare consequences of simple fiscal rules in a model of a small commodity-exporting country with a share of financially constrained households, where fiscal policy takes the form of transfers. A main finding is that balanced budget rules for commodity revenues often outperform more sophisticated fiscal rules where commodity revenues are saved in a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF). Because commodity price shocks are typically highly persistent, the households' current income is close to their permanent income, making balanced budget rules close to optimal. For commodities like oil, where price shocks are highly persistent, it is optimal to spend more than two-thirds of windfall revenues in times of high prices, and in some cases even spend the entire windfall. But for commodities where price shocks are less persistent, like bananas or sugar, the optimal rule involves spending less than half of above-average commodity revenues (with the rest saved in a SWF). It is also best to respond counter-cyclically to non-resource GDP shocks, because those shocks are less persistent (and also affect households other income). The government does not have the ability to perfectly smooth constrained households' consumption without adversely affecting unconstrained households.

Commodity Exporters --- Commodity Prices --- Fiscal Policy --- Government Expenditure --- Pro-Cyclical

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Cambodia has become one of the world's leaders in poverty reduction and shared prosperity. Cambodia sustained an average growth rate of 7.6 percent in 1994-2015, ranking sixth in the world, and has now become a lower middle-income economy. Cambodia's success has ridden on employment creation, although labor productivity gains have been lower than in other fast-growing economies, partly due to lower capital intensity. Growth has also been driven to a large extent by the country's rich and diverse natural capital which supports the livelihoods of millions of Cambodians. Going forward, Cambodia may not be able to rely on the same factors that drove strong growth and poverty reduction over the past two decades. Declining external competitiveness threatens the sustainability of garments and tourism and poses a challenge to economic diversification and moving up the value chain. A number of institutional, human capital, and, to a lesser extent, infrastructure constraints hamper competitiveness as well as the creation of a vibrant private sector in Cambodia. In light of these challenges and risks, areas of development for ensuring strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth with shared prosperity in Cambodia going forward were identified, based on analysis and consultations with stakeholders. The areas for development were ranked based on the impact interventions will have on maintaining strong and sustainable growth and achieving poverty reduction and shared prosperity, in terms of creating and enhancing households' participation in better economic opportunities, the share of the population affected, and complementarity with other interventions.

Commodities --- Commodity Prices --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Diagnostics --- Poverty Monitoring & analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Sustainability

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This policy note is provided as an output under the World Bank's Regional Advisory Service for Southern Africa, 'Developing a Regional Risk Financing Framework for Agriculture and Food Security'. A key objective of this advisory service is to inform the public sector in Southern Africa on improvements to agriculture and food security risk financing policies and programs. The note is an output under component two of the project, which aims to identify agriculture risk financing policy options. The note aims to take stock of selected key financial risks affecting the agriculture sector in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) region and provide options to build financial resilience. Weather risks, price volatility, and pests and diseases are among the most important shocks affecting agricultural producers in the region, frequently with severe consequences for food security. This note gives (i) an overview of their regional impact in terms of economic and financial cost, as well as effects on food security; (ii) describes the status quo of use of agriculture risk financing instruments by countries in the region; and (iii) derives policy recommendations to further improve financial resilience to agricultural shocks using agriculture risk financing instruments. It should be noted that risk financing instruments are only one part of a comprehensive agriculture risk management approach. Other complementary agriculture risk management mechanisms and approaches, such as the development of commodity exchanges, agriculture trade policy, or warehouse receipt systems, are not the focus of this note.

Agriculture --- Commodity Prices --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Food Security --- Insurance and Risk Mitigation

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Africa's Pulse is a biannual publication containing an analysis of the near-term macroeconomic outlook for the region. Each issue also includes a section focusing upon a topic that represents a particular development challenge for the continent. It is produced by the Office of the Chief Economist for the Africa Region of the World Bank. Recent data point to a moderate strengthening of economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in early 2018, according to the new Africa's Pulse, a bi-annual analysis of the state of African economies conducted by the World Bank. Growth is projected to pick up to 3.1 percent in 2018, and to firm to an average of 3.6 percent in 2019-20. This upswing reflected, on the supply side, rising oil and metals production, encouraged by recovering commodity prices and improving agricultural conditions following droughts. On the demand side, domestic demand was the main driver of last year's growth, reflecting a rebound in consumer spending as inflation moderated, and a recovery in fixed investment as economic activity picked up among oil and metals exporters.

Commodity Prices --- Economic Growth --- Fiscal Policy --- GDP --- Growth --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomic Analysis --- Metals Exporters --- Oil Sector --- Public Debt --- Sub-Saharan Africa