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Historiometrie --- Historiometry --- Historiometry.

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History --- Historiometry --- Statistical methods. --- Methodology

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Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.

Historical sociology --- Historische sociologie --- Sociologie [Historische ] --- Sociologie historique --- Sociology [Historical ] --- Historiometry. --- History --- Mathematical models. --- Historiometry --- Historiometrics --- Biography --- Psychohistory --- Historical models --- Mathematical models --- Methodology --- Psychological aspects --- Statistical methods

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Psychohistory --- Psychohistoire --- Psychohistory. --- Psychoanalysis in historiography --- Child psychology --- Historiography --- History --- Psychoanalysis --- Historiometry --- Psychological aspects --- Sciences --- Histoire

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" In Decoding the Past, Peter Loewenberg has collected eleven of his brilliant essays on psychohistory, a discipline that has emerged from the synthesis of traditional historical analysis and clinincal psychoanalysis. He surveys this relatively new field - its methods and its problems - to show the special contributions that psychoanalysis can make to history. He then further explores the psychohistorical method by applying it to studies of personality, cultures, groupes, and mass movements, demonstrating that psychohistory offers one of the most powerful of interpretive approaches to history. Decoding the Past is an impressive study that demonstrates the range of Loewenberg's own work in history and psychoanalysis and the full promise of an important and innovative methodology for others. His new essay takes up many of the criticisms and concerns raised about the method of psychohistory, and offers a cogent defense for its continued usage. "

Psychohistory --- Psychoanalysis in historiography --- Child psychology --- Historiography --- History --- Psychoanalysis --- Historiometry --- Psychological aspects --- #A9703H --- Psychohistory.