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In this paper we use an exchange rate model that combines asset market characteristics with balance of payments interactions to examine the nominal effective exchange rates of the German mark, Japanese yen, and U.S. dollar for the recent experience with floating exchange rates. Our approach may be interpreted as one which attempts to flesh out the missing links that arise in conditioning an exchange rate solely on relative prices, as occurs in a standard PPP analysis. In contrast to much other empirical exchange rate modeling, our approach explicitly involves the use of a current account sustainability term. Amongst the findings reported in this paper are: significant, and sensible, long-run relationships for all of the currencies studied; appealing short-run dynamics for two of the currencies; and a finding that the Japanese effective exchange rate closely tracks the long-run exchange rate defined in this paper.
Foreign Exchange --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rates --- Purchasing power parity --- Exchange rate modelling --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rate assessments --- United States
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"Over the past decade the United States has experienced widening current account deficits and a steady deterioration of its net foreign asset position. During the second half of the 1990s, this deterioration was fueled by foreign investment in a booming U.S. stock market. During the first half of the 2000s, this deterioration has been fuelled by foreign purchases of rapidly increasing U.S. government debt. A somewhat surprising aspect of the current debate is that stock market movements and fiscal policy choices have been largely treated as unrelated events. Stock market movements are usually interpreted as reflecting exogenous changes in perceived or real productivity, while budget deficits are usually understood as a mainly political decision. The authors challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the "dot-com" bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the "Bush" deficits). The "benevolent" view holds that a change in investor sentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The "cynical" view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. The authors discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the U.S. economy and, in particular, its net foreign asset position. "--World Bank web site.
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This paper creates an index of capital controls to analyze the determinants of capital flows to Brazil, accounting for the endogeneity of capital controls by considering a government that sets controls in response to capital flows. It finds that the government reacts strongly to capital flows by increasing controls on inflows during booms and relaxing them in moments of distress. The paper estimates a vector autoregression with capital flows, controls, and interest differentials. It shows that controls have been temporarily effective in altering levels and composition of capital flows but have had no sustained effects in the long run.
Exports and Imports --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International economics --- Capital flows --- Capital controls --- Capital inflows --- Capital outflows --- Private capital flows --- Balance of payments --- Capital movements --- Brazil
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“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample-dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously.
Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Price Level --- Deflation --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Capital account --- Current account balance --- Current account --- Capital account balance --- Prices --- Balance of payments --- Korea, Republic of
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This paper compares two approaches for examining the extent to which a country’s actual real effective exchange rate is consistent with economic fundamentals: the FEER approach, which involves calculating the real exchange rate that equates the current account at full employment with sustainable net capital flows, and the BEER approach, which uses econometric methods to establish a behavioral link between the real rate and relevant economic variables. An exchange rate model is estimated for the G-3 currencies to provide illustrative comparisons of BEERs and FEERs.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Current account --- Real effective exchange rates --- Capital account --- Balance of payments --- United States
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This paper reviews recent developments in the exchange system in the Islamic Republic of Iran and in the real effective exchange rate (REER). It also considers the determinants of the REER in connection with the choice of exchange regime after unification. The study illustrates how economic policy variables and exogenous shocks affect the real exchange rate primarily through the fiscal balance, and consequently, the savings-investment gap. It further illustrates that the appropriate level of REER and its medium-term path depend upon the mix of monetary, fiscal, and structural policies that underpin the evolution of inflation, balance of payments, and productivity growth.
Foreign Exchange --- Studies of Particular Policy Episodes --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Real effective exchange rates --- Iran, Islamic Republic of
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The canonical predictions of intertemporal open-economy macro models are tested by a structural VAR analysis of Group of Seven countries. The analysis is distinguished from the previous literature in that it adopts minimal assumptions for identification. Consistent with a large set of theoretical models, permanent shocks have large long-term effects on the real exchange rate but relatively small effects on the current account; temporary shocks have large effects on the current account and exchange rate in the short run, but not on either variable in the long run. The signs of some impulse responses point toward models that differentiate tradables and nontradables.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Real exchange rates --- Current account --- Exchange rates --- Current account balance --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Balance of payments --- United States
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Over the past decade or so, Tunisia has experienced a strong economic performance while pursuing a constant real exchange rate rule (CRERR). The limitations of this rule are now beginning to emerge in the context of a more open economy, regional integration, a more market-based monetary policy, and the desire to relax capital controls. This paper explores how Tunisia avoided the pitfalls of real exchange rate targeting as predicted by the theoretical models. By estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate based on fundamental variables and assessing different measures of competitiveness, the paper finds no evidence of a misalignment in the current level of the exchange rate.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Real effective exchange rates --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Prices --- Tunisia
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This paper uses an intertemporal model of the current account and macroeconomic indicators to examine the size and sustainability of Nigerian current account deficits over the 1960-97 period. The results indicate that the Nigerian economy appeared to satisfy its intertemporal budget constraint during this period. However there were years marked by excessive current account deficits. The results also support the view that current account deficits accompanied by macroeconomic instability and structural weaknesses can degenerate in to an external crisis.
Exports and Imports --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- Current account --- Current account deficits --- Current account balance --- External debt --- Current account surpluses --- Balance of payments --- Debts, External --- Nigeria
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The paper describes six different methodologies that have been used to assess the equilibrium values of exchange rates and discusses their limitations. It applies several of the approaches to data for the United States as of 2006, illustrates that different approaches sometimes provide substantially different assessments, and asks which methodologies deserve the most weight in such situations. It argues that while it is generally desirable to consider the implications of several different approaches, since different approaches provide different types of perspectives, two of the methodologies seem particularly relevant for identifying threats to macroeconomic stability and growth.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Purchasing power parity --- Exchange rate assessments --- Current account --- Balance of payments --- United States
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