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Book
Interest rates, exchange rates and world monetary policy.
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ISBN: 9783642102806 9783642102790 Year: 2010 Publisher: New York Springer

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Abstract

A careful basic theoretical and econometric analysis of the factors determining the real exchange rates of Canada, the U.K., Japan, France and Germany with respect to the United States is conducted. The resulting conclusion is that real exchange rates are almost entirely determined by real factors relating to growth and technology such as oil and commodity prices, international allocations of world investment across countries, and underlying terms of trade changes. Unanticipated money supply shocks, calculated in five alternative ways have virtually no effects. A Blanchard-Quah VAR analysis also indicates that the effects of real shocks predominate over monetary shocks by a wide margin. The implications of these facts for the conduct of monetary policy in countries outside the U.S. are then explored leading to the conclusion that all countries, to avoid exchange rate overshooting, have tended to automatically follow the same monetary policy as the United States. The history of world monetary policy is reviewed along with the determination of real exchange rates within the Euro Area.

Foreign-Exchange-Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 9780387717203 0387717196 9780387717197 038771720X Year: 2007 Publisher: New York, NY : Springer US : Imprint: Springer,

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The foreign exchange market is one of the most complex dynamic markets with the characteristics of high volatility, nonlinearity and irregularity. Since the Bretton Woods System collapsed in 1970s, the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market are more volatile than ever. Furthermore, some important factors, such as economic growth, trade development, interest rates and inflation rates, have significant impacts on the exchange rate fluctuation. Meantime, these characteristics also make it extremely difficult to predict foreign exchange rates. Therefore, exchange rates forecasting has become a very important and challenge research issue for both academic and industrial communities. In this monograph, the authors try to apply artificial neural networks (ANNs) to exchange rates forecasting. Selection of the ANN approach for exchange rates forecasting is because of ANNs’ unique features and powerful pattern recognition capability. Unlike most of the traditional model-based forecasting techniques, ANNs are a class of data-driven, self-adaptive, and nonlinear methods that do not require specific assumptions on the und- lying data generating process. These features are particularly appealing for practical forecasting situations where data are abundant or easily available, even though the theoretical model or the underlying relationship is - known. Furthermore, ANNs have been successfully applied to a wide range of forecasting problems in almost all areas of business, industry and engineering. In addition, ANNs have been proved to be a universal functional approximator that can capture any type of complex relationships.

Keywords

Economics/Management Science. --- Finance /Banking. --- Quantitative Finance. --- Operations Research/Decision Theory. --- Artificial Intelligence (incl. Robotics). --- Computational Mathematics and Numerical Analysis. --- Computing Methodologies. --- Economics. --- Electronic data processing. --- Artificial intelligence. --- Finance. --- Computer science --- Banks and banking. --- Economie politique --- Informatique --- Intelligence artificielle --- Finances --- Banques --- Mathematics. --- Mathématiques --- Foreign exchange rates -- Forecasting. --- Foreign exchange rates -- Mathematical models. --- Neural networks (Computer science). --- Finance --- International Finance --- Investment & Speculation --- Banking --- Finance - General --- Business & Economics --- AA / International- internationaal --- 305.92 --- 333.450 --- Foreign exchange rates --- -Neural networks (Computer science) --- 332.456 --- Artificial neural networks --- Nets, Neural (Computer science) --- Networks, Neural (Computer science) --- Neural nets (Computer science) --- Artificial intelligence --- Natural computation --- Soft computing --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Econometrie van de internationale handel. Handelsbalans, betalingsbalans. Wissel. --- Theorie van het deviezenverkeer. Theorie van de koopkrachtpariteit. --- Forecasting --- Rates --- Neural networks (Computer science) --- Forecasting. --- Operations research. --- Decision making. --- Economics, Mathematical. --- Computer mathematics. --- Macroeconomics. --- Finance, general. --- Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics. --- Operation Research/Decision Theory. --- Economics --- Computer mathematics --- Discrete mathematics --- Electronic data processing --- Mathematical economics --- Econometrics --- Mathematics --- AI (Artificial intelligence) --- Artificial thinking --- Electronic brains --- Intellectronics --- Intelligence, Artificial --- Intelligent machines --- Machine intelligence --- Thinking, Artificial --- Bionics --- Cognitive science --- Digital computer simulation --- Logic machines --- Machine theory --- Self-organizing systems --- Simulation methods --- Fifth generation computers --- Neural computers --- Deciding --- Decision (Psychology) --- Decision analysis --- Decision processes --- Making decisions --- Management --- Management decisions --- Choice (Psychology) --- Problem solving --- Operational analysis --- Operational research --- Industrial engineering --- Management science --- Research --- System theory --- Funding --- Funds --- Currency question --- Methodology --- Decision making --- Artificial Intelligence. --- Economics, Mathematical . --- Financial applications. --- Data processing --- Econometrie van de internationale handel. Handelsbalans, betalingsbalans. Wissel --- Theorie van het deviezenverkeer. Theorie van de koopkrachtpariteit


Book
Price Indexes in Time and Space : Methods and Practice
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 9783790821406 9783790821413 9783790828146 9783790821390 Year: 2010 Publisher: Heidelberg Physica-Verlag HD

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This book deals with the currently most relevant topics in price index numbers theory and practice. The problem of the harmonization of Consumer Price Indexes (CPIs) and the time-space integration of baskets is analyzed at the EU-zone level, with methodological and practical proposals on how to proceed for an overall treatment of the matter. Another issue is comparisons between Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and CPIs. Likewise, the construction of sub-indexes for households, economic and social groups is investigated, in order to obtain specific inflation measurement instruments. The book provides evidence from the most updated databases. Among the other issues treated in this book are spatial comparisons of price levels through PPPs and the international comparisons of macroeconomic aggregates, a re-consideration of index numbers theory, the measurement of production in non-market services, deflation problems, and price indexes in financial markets.

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