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How ought you to evaluate your options if you're uncertain about what's fundamentally valuable? A prominent response is Expected Value Maximisation (EVM)--the view that under axiological uncertainty, an option is better than another if and only if it has the greater expected value across axiologies. But the expected value of an option depends on quantitative probability and value facts, and in particular on value comparisons across axiologies. We need to explain what it is for such facts to hold. Also, EVM is by no means self-evident. We need an argument to defend that it's true. This book introduces an axiomatic approach to answer these worries. It provides an explication of what EVM means by use of representation theorems: intertheoretic comparisons can be understood in terms of facts about which options are better than which, and mutatis mutandis for intratheoretic comparisons and axiological probabilities. And it provides a systematic argument to the effect that EVM is true: the theory can be vindicated through simple axioms. The result is a formally cogent and philosophically compelling extension of standard decision theory, and original take on the problem of axiological or normative uncertainty.

Values --- Uncertainty. --- Decision making.

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Uncertainty is a fundamental part of the human condition. Experiences thwart expectations, and the world is in constant need of interpretation, evaluation and disambiguation. When writing about the past, historians can approach this uncertainty in different ways and either eliminate it from their history or enact it. This book examines the dynamics between historiography and uncertainty in the works of Livy and Velleius Paterculus. Combining close readings and theoretical reflection, it develops a distinct concept of temporal and hermeneutic uncertainty and builds on this concept to shed new light on the narrative composition of their histories. It has been argued that narrative is an essential part of human life and civilization. While engaging with recent approaches to the theory of narrative, Uncertainty in Livy and Velleius explores historiographical narrative as a mode of grappling with uncertainty. Unsicherheit ist Teil der conditio humana. Erfahrungen durchkreuzen Erwartungen, und die Lebenswelt verlangt nach Interpretation, Einordnung und der Auflösung von Mehrdeutigkeiten. Historiker können diese Unsicherheit in ihren Geschichtsbildern entweder abbilden oder eliminieren. Dieses Buch untersucht das Verhältnis zwischen Geschichtsschreibung und Unsicherheit in den Werken der römischen Historiker Livius und Velleius Paterculus. Methodisch kombiniert es literaturwissenschaftliche Analysen und theoretische Reflexion, um ein klar umrissenes Konzept von Unsicherheit zu entwickeln, das zwischen einer zeitlichen und einer hermeneutischen Dimension unterscheidet. Mit Hilfe dieses Konzepts können bisher vernachlässigte Aspekte der narrativen Form der beiden Geschichtswerke in den Blick genommen werden. Das Erzählen gilt als essentieller Teil menschlichen Zusammenlebens. In Auseinandersetzung mit aktuellen Debatten zur Erzähltheorie versteht Uncertainty in Livy and Velleius historiographisches Erzählen als eine Auseinandersetzung mit Unsicherheit.

History --- Literature (General) --- historiography --- classical philology --- temporal uncertainty --- hermeneutic uncertainty --- narrative composition --- Livy --- Velleius

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Climate change will bring about significant changes to the capacity of, and the demand on, water resources. The resulting changes include increasing climate variability that is expected to affect hydrologic conditions. The effects of climate variability on various meteorological variables have been extensively observed in many regions around the world. Atmospheric circulation, topography, land use and other regional features modify global changes to produce unique patterns of change at the regional scale. As the future changes to these water resources cannot be measured in the present, hydrological models are critical in the planning required to adapt our water resource management strategies to future climate conditions. Such models include catchment runoff models, reservoir management models, flood prediction models, groundwater recharge and flow models, and crop water balance models. In water-scarce regions such as Australia, urban water systems are particularly vulnerable to rapid population growth and climate change. In the presence of climate change induced uncertainty, urban water systems need to be more resilient and multi-sourced. Decreasing volumetric rainfall trends have an effect on reservoir yield and operation practices. Severe intensity rainfall events can cause failure of drainage system capacity and subsequent urban flood inundation problems. Policy makers, end users and leading researchers need to work together to develop a consistent approach to interpreting the effects of climate variability and change on water resources. This Special Edition includes papers by international experts who have investigated climate change impacts on a variety of systems including irrigation and water markets, land use changes and vegetation growth, lake water levels and quality and sea level rises. These investigations have been conducted in many regions of the world including the USA, China, East Africa, Australia, Taiwan and the Sultanate of Oman.

meteorological variables --- water resources management --- uncertainty --- hydrological models --- climate models

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Why is uncertainty so important to politics today? To explore the underlying reasons, issues and challenges, this book's chapters address finance and banking, insurance, technology regulation and critical infrastructures, as well as climate change, infectious disease responses, natural disasters, migration, crime and security and spirituality and religion. The book argues that uncertainties must be understood as complex constructions of knowledge, materiality, experience, embodiment and practice. Examining in particular how uncertainties are experienced in contexts of marginalisation and precarity, this book shows how sustainability and development are not just technical issues, but depend deeply on political values and choices. What burgeoning uncertainties require lies less in escalating efforts at control, but more in a new - more collective, mutualistic and convivial - politics of responsibility and care. If hopes of much-needed progressive transformation are to be realised, then currently blinkered understandings of uncertainty need to be met with renewed democratic struggle. Written in an accessible style and illustrated by multiple case studies from across the world, this book will appeal to a wide cross-disciplinary audience in fields ranging from economics to law to science studies to sociology to anthropology and geography, as well as professionals working in risk management, disaster risk reduction, emergencies and wider public policy fields.

Risk --- Risk assessment --- Sociological aspects. --- Political aspects. --- Analysis, Risk --- Assessment, Risk --- Risk analysis --- Risk evaluation --- Evaluation --- Sociology of risk --- Sociology of uncertainty --- Uncertainty --- Sociology --- Sociological aspects

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Sound power describes the emission of sound from sound sources. Despite today's state-of-the art measurement techniques, the current sound power determination methods are restricted due to various limitations. To overcome these limitations, a new sound power determination method is proposed, aiming at the establishment of traceability in airborne sound. This will enable the characterization of a sound source by its free field sound power. The dissertation describes a study on the dissemination process, which will allow the sound power of a device under test located at a real surrounding environment, to be referred to its free field sound power. Apart from the sound power, the corresponding uncertainty may be estimated in a transparent way, where each uncertainty component is provided. The basic tool for the dissemination process is the substitution method using aerodynamic reference sound sources, applied to both sound pressure and sound intensity measurements. Initially, a theoretical investigation deals with the factors that influence the substitution method. Experimental results are then presented based on measurements using a specially designed scanning apparatus. The transition from calibration to in situ conditions and the required correction, due to changes in environmental and operational conditions, is then discussed. In the last section, the sound power level of devices under test is determined along with its related uncertainty, which is further compared to the up-to-date uncertainty values.

Engineering --- Acoustics. --- Construction --- Industrial arts --- Technology --- sound power --- substitution --- correction --- uncertainty --- traceability