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Recent discussions of the extent of decoupling between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and real gross domestic product (GDP) provide mixed evidence and have generated much debate. We show that to get a clear picture of decoupling it is important to distinguish cycles from trends: there is an Environmental Okun's Law (a cyclical relationship between emissions and real GDP) that often obscures the trend relationship between emissions and real GDP. We show that, once the cyclical relationship is accounted for, the trends show evidence of decoupling in richer nations—particularly in European countries, but not yet in emerging markets. The picture changes somewhat, however, if we take into consideration the effects of international trade, that is, if we distinguish between production-based and consumption-based emissions. Once we add in their net emission transfers, the evidence for decoupling among the richer countries gets weaker. The good news is that countries with underlying policy frameworks more supportive of renewable energy and supportive of climate change tend to have greater decoupling between trend emissions and trend GDP, and for both production- and consumption-based emissions.

Air --- Air contaminants --- Air pollutants --- Air pollution --- Air pollution control --- Air toxics --- Airborne pollutants --- Atmosphere --- Contaminants, Air --- Control of air pollution --- Pollutants, Air --- Toxics, Air --- Pollution --- Air quality --- Atmospheric deposition --- Pollution. --- Control --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Environment and Growth --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Environment and Development --- Environment and Trade --- Sustainability --- Environmental Accounts and Accounting --- Environmental Equity --- Population Growth --- Trade: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Climate change --- International economics --- Economic growth --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Income --- Imports --- Exports --- Business cycles --- Environment --- National accounts --- International trade --- Greenhouse gases --- United States