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The Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) provides expert and up-to-date analysis of global capital flows that play a critical role in world economic growth and Financial stability. The report focuses on current conditions in global Financial markets, analyzing Financial imbalances and structural issues that could pose risks to stability and sustained market access by emerging market borrowers. Along with the IMF's semiannual World Economic Outlook, the GFSR is a key vehicle for communicating the IMF's multilateral surveillance. The GFSR also draws out the Financial ramifcations of economic imbalances highlighted by the WEO, making it an indispensable companion publication.

Economic stabilization

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After inputs from country authorities, outside experts, and staff; after extensive deliberations at the Executive Board; after further guidance from ministers and governors at the IMFC meetings-after all that, we need to move from diagnosis to action. The goal of making surveillance as interconnected as the world economy remains an inherently long-term endeavor. Nevertheless, building on recent progress, we can do better even in the near term. I want to take this opportunity to put forward some specific measures, based on Executive Directors' many thoughtful comments and suggestions (Table 1).

Economic stabilization.

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Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.

Economic stabilization.

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March 1999 Empirical work in Bangladesh shows that growth reduces poverty in both urban and rural areas - and is associated with rising inequality only in urban areas. It appears that promoting growth in rural areas rather than urban areas would reduce poverty more. Most empirical work on how growth affects poverty and inequality has been based on international panel data sets. Panels can also be used within a country, if the analysis is carried out at the regional level. Wodon does this for Bangladesh, where regional panel estimates indicate that growth reduces poverty in both urban and rural areas. Growth is associated with rising inequality only in urban areas. Simulations based on these estimates indicate how much poverty reduction could increase in the next 10 years if growth were promoted in rural areas rather than urban areas. This paper-a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, South Asia Region-was written as part of background work for the Bangladesh poverty assessment. The author may be contacted at qwodon@worldbank.org.

Economic stabilization.

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During the COVID-19 pandemic and global financial crisis, governments swiftly served as financiers of last resort through large financial support measures (FSMs) such as loan and guarantee programs and equity injections in firms. This Staff Discussion Note argues that such FSMs prevented bankruptcies and attenuated the recession by increasing firms' liquidity, reducing risk premiums, and boosting confidence. But FSMs also carry large and long-lasting fiscal costs and risks. The note presents recommendations for managing the legacies of the COVID-19 programs and preparing for future crises. Ideally, FSMs should be assessed and included in budget plans, though a balance needs to be struck between speed and scrutiny.

Economic stabilization.