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Business cycles --- anno 1900-1999 --- Inflation (Finance) --- Inflation --- Inflation (finance) --- AA / International- internationaal --- 333.844 --- 333.841 --- 333.481 --- 332.41 --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Devaluatie en opwaardering. Stabilisering. J curve. --- Inflatie. --- Monetaire crisissen, hervormingen, saneringen en stabilisering. --- Inflation (Finance). --- Monetaire crisissen, hervormingen, saneringen en stabilisering --- Inflatie --- Devaluatie en opwaardering. Stabilisering. J curve

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In this paper we provide empirical measures of central bank credibility and augment these with historical narratives from eleven countries. To the extent we are able to apply reliable institutional information we can also indirectly assess their role in influencing the credibility of the monetary authority. We focus on measures of inflation expectations, the mean reversion properties of inflation, and indicators of exchange rate risk. In addition we place some emphasis on whether credibility is particularly vulnerable during financial crises, whether its evolution is a function of the type of crisis or its kind (i.e., currency, banking, sovereign debt crises). We find credibility changes over time are frequent and can be significant. Nevertheless, no robust empirical connection between the size of an economic shock (e.g., the Great Depression) and loss of credibility is found. Second, the frequency with which the world economy experiences economic and financial crises, institutional factors (i.e., the quality of governance) plays an important role in preventing a loss of credibility. Third, credibility shocks are dependent on the type of monetary policy regime in place. Finally, credibility is most affected by whether the shock can be associated with policy errors.

Zonder onderwerpscode: economie

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Central banks have evolved for close to four centuries. This paper argues that for two centuries central banks caught up to the strategies followed by the leading central banks of the era; the Bank of England in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and the Federal Reserve in the twentieth century. It also argues that, by the late 20th century, small open economies were more prone to adopt a new policy regime when the old one no longer served its purpose whereas large, less open, and systemically important economies were more reluctant to embrace new approaches to monetary policy. Our study blends the quantitative with narrative explanations of the evolution of central banks. We begin by providing an overview of the evolution of monetary policy regimes taking note of the changing role of financial stability over time. We then provide some background to an analysis that aims, via econometric means, to quantify the similarities and idiosyncrasies of the ten central banks and the extent to which they represent a network of sorts where, in effect, some central banks learn from others.

Zonder onderwerpscode: economie

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Economic order --- Money. Monetary policy --- Eastern and Central Europe --- EEU / Central & Eastern Europe --- HU / Hungary - Hongarije - Hongrie --- 336.61 --- 333.820 --- Monetary policy --- -Monetary policy --- -Banks and banking --- -332.4947 --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Financieel beleid. --- Geldbeleid, bankbeleid en kredietbeleid: algemeenheden. --- Banks and banking --- 332.4947 --- Geldbeleid, bankbeleid en kredietbeleid: algemeenheden --- Financieel beleid