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The focuses are on the study of risk management of natural disasters from the perspective of complex systems, using the example of Mexico. It develops the theory of an arrival process taking into account an early warning system and we use it to create appropriate actuarial models. Then, it formulates a stochastic optimization problem to find an investment strategy for the management of a fund from the perspective of a risk-averse government. The solution is given with the use of the Föllmer-Schweizer strategy.
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The Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) are valuable components of the disaster risk financing tool kit for Fund members, especially developing countries. They help to meet urgent balance of payments needs, and are designed to play a catalytic role in mobilizing other external financing. This paper develops proposals for a higher annual access limit under the RCF and RFI, building on a November 2016 staff paper on small states' resilience to natural disasters and climate change (IMF, 2016c). Directors generally supported the proposal in that paper to establish higher annual access limits of 60 percent of quota under the RCF and RFI for countries experiencing severe natural disaster-related damages. The focus of this paper is to specify the threshold of damage from a natural disaster that would allow members experiencing urgent balance of payments needs arising from such disasters to access emergency financing at the higher annual limit. In the November 2016 paper, staff proposed, among other things, the possibility of establishing a higher access limit under the RCF and RFI where the amount of damage reached the threshold of 30 percent of GDP. Most Directors regarded the proposed threshold of disaster damage as overly restrictive, and suggested lowering the threshold to 20 percent of GDP or lower, provided that this did not jeopardize the self-sustainability of the PRGT. For a range of future disaster outcomes, a damage threshold of 20 percent of GDP could increase projected annual average PRGT loan demand in the 1-5 percent range over the next decade, which should not pose significant risks to the robustness of PRGT self-sustainability. Cautious stewardship of PRGT resources argues against a lower disaster damage threshold, pending further experience with disaster trends and associated PRGT loan demand. This paper does not propose changes to the current cumulative access limits for the RCF and RFI. The cumulative access limits play an important role in the Fund's financing architecture, constraining the extent to which countries can access Fund resources without implementing a Fund-supported program with upper credit tranche (UCT) conditionality and associated policies in circumstances where such a program would be more appropriate. The Board will have the opportunity to review the cumulative access limits in the context.
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L'énergie se situe au cœur de la politique économique de l'Indonésie fondée depuis Suharto (1966) sur la valorisation des ressources naturelles. Le pays dispose en effet de considérables ressources fossiles mais également d'un potentiel d'énergies renouvelables significatif. A ce titre, le solde positif de la balance commerciale énergétique a jusque très récemment constitué une contribution majeure aux besoins de financement du pays. L'exploitation de cette richesse énergétique pose toutefois plusieurs questions: "Dans quelle mesure la déplétion de ces actifs naturels donne-t-elle lieu à la création d'autres actifs nationaux, capital productif, financier et humain, susceptible d'assurer un effet de levier dans le développement économique du pays?" "Quelles sont les tendances d'évolution du mix énergétique et comment se traduisent-elles en termes de compétitivité des secteurs productifs de pouvoir d'achat des ménages et d'équilibre des comptes publics?" "De quelle manière les spécificités géographiques (archipel), ethniques (provinces séparatistes) et sociologiques (répartition des revenus) constituent-elles des déterminants de la stratégie énergétique nationale et des enjeux politiques associés?" C'est à l'aune de ces différents indicateurs que la capacité de l'économie indonésienne à faire face aux incertitudes croissantes de la nouvelle ère énergie-climat, amorcée avec le tournant du siècle, doit être examinée. Les enjeux énergétiques constitueront à n'en pas douter une des variables clé de la trajectoire de développement à venir.
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Executive Directors welcomed the report of the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) on IMF Engagement with Small Developing States (SDS) and appreciated its insights and recommendations. They welcomed the report's finding that the Fund has substantially stepped up its engagement with its SDS members over the past decade, and that SDS country officials generally considered Fund surveillance and capacity development (CD) activities of high quality and well-tailored to their needs.
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"With the evolution of today's educational contexts, teacher education is becoming increasingly important into European political discussion, in relation to its ability to improve the results of student learning. The need to confront new changes clearly signifies that the professionalism of teachers cannot be limited to competencies and skills learning, however, it does require new strategic dimensions of professional activation, oriented towards better identifying personal goals and strategies to be achieved. The text re-draws the paradigm of the continuing teacher professional development by integrating the capability approach with the models of competencies. Starting from the analysis of European policies on teacher education, the text carry out an experimental research into pre-school settings to explore the importance of individual choice: throught the creation of innovative research tools and a self-training methodology, pre-school teachers involved improved their self-determine agency and better qualified professional development. The text meets the interests of researchers, as a important contribution to rethink the topic of teacher training, also for the chosen methodological approach; for teachers, it wants to deepen the sense of educational professionalism, updated to the most recent topics and issues; finally, it meets the interests of aspiring in-training teachers or aspiring researchers for the richness of its contents, in order to inspire the elaboration of new, original research perspectives.".
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"Catastrophes and natural disasters lead to numerous problems in the education of children and teenagers, who present as the most vulnerable subjects in the communities affected. Often, in these circumstances, adults (educators, teachers, parents) do not know how to respond to their needs, reactions and feelings. What do we need to know about childhood trauma? What answers should we give to children exposed to the effects of catastrophes (mourning, destruction, widespread fears)? What educational activities might support them in their resilience? This book, born from experiences gained in the aftermath of the Amatrice earthquake in Italy in 2016, offers paths, through guidelines and educational activities, to confront together with children and teenagers post-catastrophe situations, the return to school, the intelligent management of emotions, and the maintenance of a sense of community.".
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Natural disasters --- Catastrophes naturelles --- Natural disasters.
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Approaches to Disaster Management regards critical disaster management issues. Ten original research reports by international scholars centered on disaster management are organized into three general areas of hazards and disaster management. The first section includes discussions of perspectives on vulnerability and on evolving approaches to mitigation. The second section highlights approaches to improve data use and information management in several distinct applications intended to promote prediction and communication of hazard. The third section regards the management of crises and post-event recovery in the private sector, in the design of urban space and among the victims of disaster. This volume contributes both conceptual and practical commentary to the disaster management literature.
Natural disasters. --- Natural calamities --- Disasters --- Natural disasters
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Natural and environmental hazards research comprises a diverse set of subjects and methodologies and this book is no exception - offering the reader only a small glimpse into the physical and social processes that threaten human interests. Atmospheric Hazards-Case Studies in Modeling, Communication, and Societal Impacts explores atmospheric-based hazards through focused investigations ranging from a local to global perspective. Within this short compendium, the major scales of atmospheric motion are well represented with topics on microscale turbulent transport of pollutants, mesoscale events stemming from thunderstorm complexes, and synoptic scale extreme precipitation episodes. Chapters include discussions on modeling aspects for investigating hazards (pollution, regional climate models) and the forecasting and structure of high wind events (derechos), whereas others delve into hazard communication, preparedness, and social vulnerability issues (tornadoes, hurricanes, and lightning). Although the chapters are quite disparate upon first inspection, the topics are united through their interweaving of both the physical and societal mechanisms that create the atmospheric hazard and eventual disaster.
Natural disasters. --- Natural calamities --- Disasters --- Natural disasters
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