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Tanzania's real effective exchange rate (REER) has depreciated sharply since end-2000, reversing the appreciation that took place in the second half of the 1990s. Single-country and panel data estimates, and the external sustainability approach, suggest that Tanzania's REER is currently modestly undervalued relative to its estimated equilibrium level. Looking forward, a modest trend appreciation of the equilibrium REER is expected, consistent with continued high GDP growth and an expected recovery in terms of trade. In addition, capital inflows to Tanzania could be significantly higher than currently expected, to take advantage of Tanzania's natural resources and strong policy framework. If so, these inflows would contribute to an additional appreciation by as much as 20 percent of the equilibrium REER.
Equilibrium (Economics) --- Foreign exchange rates --- Econometric models. --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Disequilibrium (Economics) --- Economic equilibrium --- General equilibrium (Economics) --- Partial equilibrium (Economics) --- Rates --- DGE (Economics) --- DSGE (Economics) --- Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (Economics) --- SDGE (Economic theory) --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Trade: General --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Currency --- International economics --- Finance --- Real effective exchange rates --- Current account deficits --- Exports --- Foreign direct investment --- Balance of payments --- Investments, Foreign --- Tanzania, United Republic of
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This paper derives an equilibrium for a competitive multi-stage game in which an agents' current action influences his probability of survival into the next round of play. This is directly relevant in banking, where a banks' current lending and pricing decisions determines its future probability of default. In technical terms, our innovation is to consider a multi-stage game with endogenous discounting. An equilibrium for such a multi-stage game with endogenous discounting has not been derived before in the literature.
Game theory. --- Competition --- Equilibrium (Economics) --- Mathematical models. --- Disequilibrium (Economics) --- Economic equilibrium --- General equilibrium (Economics) --- Partial equilibrium (Economics) --- Games, Theory of --- Theory of games --- DGE (Economics) --- DSGE (Economics) --- Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (Economics) --- SDGE (Economic theory) --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Mathematical models --- Mathematics --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Environmental Economics --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Environmental Economics: General --- Finance --- Banking --- Environmental economics --- Asset prices --- Environment --- Prices --- Banks and banking --- Environmental sciences
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Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. This paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab countries in transition. In general, past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump.
Economic development --- Equilibrium (Economics) --- DGE (Economics) --- Disequilibrium (Economics) --- DSGE (Economics) --- Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (Economics) --- Economic equilibrium --- General equilibrium (Economics) --- Partial equilibrium (Economics) --- SDGE (Economic theory) --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Middle East --- Economic conditions. --- Politics and government. --- E-books --- Arab Spring, 2010 --- -Arab Awakening, 2010 --- -Arab countries --- Economic policy. --- -Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Economic History: Macroeconomics --- Growth and Fluctuations: Asia including Middle East --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East --- Other Economic Systems: Performance and Prospects --- Fiscal Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Fiscal stance --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Current account deficits --- Real effective exchange rates --- Fiscal policy --- Prices --- Balance of payments --- Arab countries --- Egypt, Arab Republic of
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This paper surveys dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with financial frictions in use by central banks and discusses priorities for future development of such models for the purpose of monetary and financial stability analysis. It highlights the need to develop macrofinancial models which allow analysis of the macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy tools and to evaluate elements of the Basel III reforms as a priority. The paper also reviews the main approaches to introducing financial frictions into general equilibrium models.
Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Equilibrium (Economics) --- Banks and banking, Central. --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. --- Global Economic Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Subprime Mortgage Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Banker's banks --- Banks, Central --- Central banking --- Central banks --- Disequilibrium (Economics) --- Economic equilibrium --- General equilibrium (Economics) --- Partial equilibrium (Economics) --- Financial crises --- Banks and banking --- DGE (Economics) --- DSGE (Economics) --- Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (Economics) --- SDGE (Economic theory) --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Banks and Banking --- Econometrics --- Finance: General --- Forecasting --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Financial Forecasting and Simulation --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Economics --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Banking --- Finance --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Economic Forecasting --- Financial frictions --- Financial stability assessment --- Interbank markets --- Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models --- Economic theory --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Economic forecasting --- Econometric analysis --- Financial markets --- Financial services industry --- International finance --- Econometric models --- New Zealand
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This book examines imbalances in seven major economies: China, France, Germany, India, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, evaluating key indicators agreed on by the G20 for identifying large imbalances, including public and private debt and private saving, and countries external position. The chapters describe a suite of corrective steps tailored for each country that, if implemented, could improve prospective economic outcomes, creating sustainable and balanced growth for these economies and serving as a model for other G20 countries.
Economic policy --- Economic development --- Financial crises --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Equilibrium (Economics) --- Balance of trade --- Debts, External --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Prevention --- Economic policy. --- Economic development. --- Balance of trade. --- Debts, External. --- Prevention. --- Debts, Foreign --- Debts, International --- External debts --- Foreign debts --- International debts --- Deficits, Trade --- Trade, Balance of --- Trade balance --- Trade deficits --- Trade surpluses --- Surpluses, Trade --- Disequilibrium (Economics) --- Economic equilibrium --- General equilibrium (Economics) --- Partial equilibrium (Economics) --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic nationalism --- Economic planning --- National planning --- State planning --- Debt --- International finance --- Investments, Foreign --- International trade --- Balance of payments --- Mercantile system --- Payment --- DGE (Economics) --- DSGE (Economics) --- Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (Economics) --- SDGE (Economic theory) --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Crises --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Planning --- National security --- Social policy --- Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009) --- E-books --- Global Economic Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Subprime Mortgage Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Industries: Financial Services --- Production and Operations Management --- Labor --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Fiscal Policy --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public debt --- Current account surpluses --- Current account deficits --- Fiscal consolidation --- Revenue administration --- Fiscal policy --- Debts, Public --- Revenue --- Expenditures, Public --- United States
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The IMF's internal analysis of exchange rate issues has been guided by, and limited by, the conceptual and empirical frameworks that have emerged from the collective research of the economics profession. The research has provided several general approaches that are useful for assessing whether countries exchange rates seem broadly appropriate. One involves the calculation of purchasing power-party (PPP) measure or international competitiveness indicators. A second, known as the macroeconomic balance framework, focuses on the extent to which prevailing exchange rates and policies are consistent with simultaneous internal and external equilibrium over the medium run. Some recent extensions of the macroeconomic balance approach and the manner in which it is applied by the IMF staff are described in this paper.
International finance --- Foreign exchange rates --- Mathematical models --- Foreign exchange --- -Purchasing power parity --- Balance of payments --- Equilibrium (Economics) --- Macroeconomics --- 339.742 --- 339.7 --- 339.72.053 --- financiën --- macro-economie --- monetair beleid --- fmi --- taux de change --- pays industrialises --- AA* / International - Internationaal --- 382.241 --- 305.92 --- 333.831.0 --- 333.481 --- 333.450 --- 333.451.6 --- 330.05 --- 332.45 --- Economics --- Disequilibrium (Economics) --- Economic equilibrium --- General equilibrium (Economics) --- Partial equilibrium (Economics) --- Stagnation (Economics) --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Current account balance (International trade) --- International payments, Balance of --- Terms of trade --- Balance of trade --- International liquidity --- International monetary system --- International money --- Finance --- International economic relations --- Law of one price --- One price, Law of --- Parity, Purchasing power --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Rates of exchange --- Cambistry --- Currency exchange --- Exchange, Foreign --- Foreign currency --- Foreign exchange problem --- Foreign money --- Forex --- FX (Finance) --- International exchange --- Currency crises --- Betalingsverdragen --- Internationale financien. Buitenlands betalingsverkeer --(z.o {336}) --- Internationaal betalingsverkeer. Valutahandel. Wisselmarkten. Deviezenhandel. Internationale kapitaalmarkt. Flow and funds analysis. Betalingsbalans. Internationale geldmarkt.--?.053 --- imf --- wisselkoers --- geindustrialiseerde landen --- Balans van het lopend verkeer. --- Econometrie van de internationale handel. Handelsbalans, betalingsbalans. Wissel. --- Evolutie van de rentetarieven naar de duur van de bedragen. Verband tussen de diverse rentetarieven: algemeenheden. --- Monetaire crisissen, hervormingen, saneringen en stabilisering. --- Theorie van het deviezenverkeer. Theorie van de koopkrachtpariteit. --- Vlottende wisselkoersen. Crawling peg. --- Rates --- International Monetary Fund. --- Mezhdunarodnyĭ vali︠u︡tnyĭ fond --- Международный валютный фонд --- Miz︠h︡narodnyĭ vali︠u︡tnyĭ fond --- Fundo Monetário Internacional --- Fondo Monetario Internacional --- IMF (International Monetary Fund) --- FMI (International Monetary Fund) --- Internationaler Währungsfonds --- Kokusai Tsūka Kikin --- Fonds monétaire international --- Kukche Tʻonghwa Kigŭm --- Kansainvälinen Valuuttarahasto --- Kuo chi huo pi chi chin --- Fondul Monetar International --- Ṣundūq al-Naqd al-Dawlī --- Fondo M. Internacional --- IWF (International Monetary Fund) --- Kō̜ngthun Kānngœ̄n rawāng Prathēt --- MVF (International Monetary Fund) --- Międzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy --- Mulya Aramudala --- I.M.F. (International Monetary Fund) --- Quỹ tiè̂n tệ quó̂c té̂ --- Nemzetközi Valuta Alap --- صندوق النقد الدولي --- 国际货币基金组织 --- 国際通貨基金 --- 國際貨幣基金組織 --- Fundu Monetariu Internacional --- Ṣundūq al-Naqd al-Duwalī --- DNT (Organization) --- Working papers --- 339.72.053 Internationaal betalingsverkeer. Valutahandel. Wisselmarkten. Deviezenhandel. Internationale kapitaalmarkt. Flow and funds analysis. Betalingsbalans. Internationale geldmarkt.--?.053 --- 339.7 Internationale financien. Buitenlands betalingsverkeer --(z.o {336}) --- 339.742 Betalingsverdragen --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- Econometrie van de internationale handel. Handelsbalans, betalingsbalans. Wissel --- Theorie van het deviezenverkeer. Theorie van de koopkrachtpariteit --- Vlottende wisselkoersen. Crawling peg --- Monetaire crisissen, hervormingen, saneringen en stabilisering --- Evolutie van de rentetarieven naar de duur van de bedragen. Verband tussen de diverse rentetarieven: algemeenheden --- Balans van het lopend verkeer --- Mathematical models. --- Foreign exchange rates - Mathematical models --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: Stocks --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Currency --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Investment & securities --- Current account --- Real exchange rates --- Real interest rates --- Real effective exchange rates --- Financial services --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Interest rates --- Money --- Investments, Foreign --- United States
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