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The agrarian unrest in the United States at the end of the nineteenth century is examined. This unrest is often viewed as stemming from the inability of farmers to adapt to changing conditions in world agriculture. This hypothesis is tested in the context of a distributed lag supply function. Varying parameter estimation methods are used to trace the history of the parameters in the supply function and to decompose observed prices into permanent and transitory components over time. The patterns of variation are tested for conformity with a model of rational price-expectation formation. The conclusion is that farmers behaved as economic theory would predict, but that neither theory nor practice gave them relief from the troubles which plagued them.

Parameter estimation.

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Mathematical control systems --- Mathematical statistics --- Estimation theory --- Parameter estimation --- System identification --- #TWER:MOD --- 519.7 --- Stochastic systems --- Estimating techniques --- Least squares --- Stochastic processes --- 519.7 Mathematical cybernetics --- Mathematical cybernetics --- Identification, System --- System analysis --- #BIBC:T1998 --- 681.5 --- 681.5 Automatic control engineering. Control systems, techniques, equipment. Cybernetic and automation technology --- Automatic control engineering. Control systems, techniques, equipment. Cybernetic and automation technology --- Estimation theory. --- Parameter estimation. --- System identification. --- Systèmes, Théorie des --- Commande, Théorie de la --- System theory --- Systèmes, Identification des --- Théorie de l'estimation --- Systèmes, Théorie des. --- Commande, Théorie de la.