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Excess volatility tests for financial market efficiency maintain the hypothesis of risk-neutrality. This permits the specification of the benchmark efficient market price as the present discounted value of expected future dividends. By departing from the risk-neutrality assumption in a stripped-down version of Lucas's general equilibrium asset pricing model, I show that asset prices determined in a competitive asset market and efficient by construction can nevertheless violate the variance bounds established under the assumption of risk neutrality. This can occur even without the problems of non-stationarity (including bubbles) and finite samples. Standard excess volatility tests are joint tests of market efficiency and risk neutrality. Failure of an asset price to pass the test may be due to the absence of risk neutrality rather than to market inefficiency.
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The paper considers the analytical underpinnings of the scope for and limits of demand and supply management. After restating a general policy effectiveness result for New-Classical macroeconomic models, several non-Walrasan equilibrium models are considered. These use the efficiency wage hypothesis to generate equilibrium unemployment in the labor market and imperfect competition in the goods market to generate scope for demand management. Hysteresis models of the natural rate are also reviewed briefly. Tentative implications are drawn for the contributions of demand and supply management to the resolution of the European unemployment problem.
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