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Betting on theories
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ISBN: 052141850X 0521063469 0511527322 Year: 1993 Publisher: Cambridge : Cambridge University Press,

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Abstract

This book is a major contribution to decision theory, focusing on the question of when it is rational to accept scientific theories. The author examines both Bayesian decision theory and confirmation theory, refining and elaborating the views of Ramsey and Savage. He argues that the most solid foundation for confirmation theory is to be found in decision theory, and he provides a decision-theoretic derivation of principles for how many probabilities should be revised over time. Professor Maher defines a notion of accepting a hypothesis, and then shows that it is not reducible to probability and that it is needed to deal with some important questions in the philosophy of science. A Bayesian decision-theoretic account of rational acceptance is provided together with a proof of the foundations for this theory. A final chapter shows how this account can be used to cast light on such vexed issues as verisimilitude and scientific realism.

The adaptive decision maker
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ISBN: 0521415055 0521425263 1139173936 9780521425261 Year: 1993 Publisher: Cambridge : Cambridge University Press,

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The Adaptive Decision Maker argues that people use a variety of strategies to make judgments and choices. The authors introduce a model that shows how decision makers balance effort and accuracy considerations and predicts which strategy a person will use in a given situation. A series of experiments testing the model are presented, and the authors analyse how the model can lead to improved decisions and opportunities for further research.

Beslissen en beoordelen : besliskunde in de psychologie
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ISBN: 9053520236 Year: 1993 Publisher: Amsterdam Boom

Decisions with multiple objectives : preferences and value tradeoffs
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ISBN: 0521438837 9780521438834 0521441854 9780521441858 9781139174084 1139174088 Year: 1993 Publisher: Cambridge : Cambridge University Press,

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Many of the complex problems faced by decision makers involve multiple conflicting objectives. This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe his true feelings in order to make those critically important, vexing trade-offs between incommensurable objectives. The theory is illustrated by many real concrete examples taken from a host of disciplinary settings. The standard approach in decision theory or decision analysis specifies a simplified single objective like monetary return to maximise. By generalising from the single objective case to the multiple objective case, this book considerably widens the range of applicability of decision analysis.

Science, politics, and morality : scientific uncertainty and decision making
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ISBN: 0792319974 9048142113 9401581436 Year: 1993 Volume: vol 17 Publisher: Dordrecht Boston London Kluwer Academic Publishers

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