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This book is a major contribution to decision theory, focusing on the question of when it is rational to accept scientific theories. The author examines both Bayesian decision theory and confirmation theory, refining and elaborating the views of Ramsey and Savage. He argues that the most solid foundation for confirmation theory is to be found in decision theory, and he provides a decision-theoretic derivation of principles for how many probabilities should be revised over time. Professor Maher defines a notion of accepting a hypothesis, and then shows that it is not reducible to probability and that it is needed to deal with some important questions in the philosophy of science. A Bayesian decision-theoretic account of rational acceptance is provided together with a proof of the foundations for this theory. A final chapter shows how this account can be used to cast light on such vexed issues as verisimilitude and scientific realism.
Decision making. --- Decision making --- Deciding --- Decision (Psychology) --- Decision analysis --- Decision processes --- Making decisions --- Management --- Management decisions --- Choice (Psychology) --- Problem solving --- Arts and Humanities --- Philosophy
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Operational research. Game theory --- AA / International- internationaal --- 305.6 --- Risicotheorie, speltheorie. Risicokapitaal. Beslissingsmodellen. --- Decision making. --- Game theory. --- Decision making --- Game theory --- Games, Theory of --- Theory of games --- Deciding --- Decision (Psychology) --- Decision analysis --- Decision processes --- Making decisions --- Management --- Management decisions --- Risicotheorie, speltheorie. Risicokapitaal. Beslissingsmodellen --- Mathematical models --- Mathematics --- Choice (Psychology) --- Problem solving --- Théorie des jeux
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Besluitvorming --- Besluitvormingsanalyse --- Besluitvormingsprocessen --- Computer-based information systems --- Deciding --- Decision analysis --- Decision making --- Decision processes --- Decision-making --- Décision [Prise de ] --- Décision [Théorie de la ] --- MIS (Information systems) --- Making decisions --- Management decisions --- Management information systems --- Management--Beslissingen --- Management--Besluitvorming --- Management--Decision making --- Management-informatiesystemen --- Prise de décision --- Systèmes d'information de gestion --- Théorie de la décision --- Informatique de gestion --- Prise de décision
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The Adaptive Decision Maker argues that people use a variety of strategies to make judgments and choices. The authors introduce a model that shows how decision makers balance effort and accuracy considerations and predicts which strategy a person will use in a given situation. A series of experiments testing the model are presented, and the authors analyse how the model can lead to improved decisions and opportunities for further research.
Adaptability (Psychology) --- Decision making --- Adaptation (Psychologie) --- Prise de décision --- Decision Making --- Prise de décision --- Deciding --- Decision (Psychology) --- Decision analysis --- Decision processes --- Making decisions --- Management --- Management decisions --- Choice (Psychology) --- Problem solving --- Adaptation (Psychology) --- Adaptive behavior --- Flexibility (Psychology) --- Malleability (Psychology) --- Personality --- Adjustment (Psychology) --- Health Sciences --- Psychiatry & Psychology --- Decision making.
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Decision making --- Judgment --- 159.95 --- 658.012 --- 519.2 --- Judgement --- Knowledge, Theory of --- Language and languages --- Psychology --- Thought and thinking --- Wisdom --- Deciding --- Decision (Psychology) --- Decision analysis --- Decision processes --- Making decisions --- Management --- Management decisions --- Choice (Psychology) --- Problem solving --- Cognitieve psychologie --- Planning in het bedrijf --- Wiskundige statistiek --- Decision making. --- Judgment.
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Theory of knowledge --- Beleidswetenschappen --- Besluitvorming --- Besluitvormingsanalyse --- Besluitvormingsprocessen --- Critical thinking --- Deciding --- Decision analysis --- Decision making --- Decision processes --- Decision-making --- Denken [Kritisch ] --- Décision [Prise de ] --- Décision [Théorie de la ] --- Esprit critique --- Kritisch denken --- Kritische zin --- Making decisions --- Management decisions --- Management--Beslissingen --- Management--Besluitvorming --- Management--Decision making --- Policy sciences --- Politique [Sciences de la ] --- Prise de décision --- Sciences de la politique --- Thinking [Critical ] --- Théorie de la décision --- 415.4 --- begrippen --- denken --- indicatoren --- kennistheorie --- Hogere geestelijke functies
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Besluitvorming --- Besluitvormingsanalyse --- Besluitvormingsprocessen --- Deciding --- Decision analysis --- Decision making --- Decision processes --- Decision-making --- Décision [Prise de ] --- Décision [Théorie de la ] --- Making decisions --- Management decisions --- Management--Beslissingen --- Management--Besluitvorming --- Management--Decision making --- Prise de décision --- Théorie de la décision --- Statistical decision. --- AA / International- internationaal --- 305.6 --- Risicotheorie, speltheorie. Risicokapitaal. Beslissingsmodellen. --- Prise de décision --- Statistical decision --- Decision problems --- Risicotheorie, speltheorie. Risicokapitaal. Beslissingsmodellen --- Game theory --- Operations research --- Statistics --- Management science
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Many of the complex problems faced by decision makers involve multiple conflicting objectives. This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe his true feelings in order to make those critically important, vexing trade-offs between incommensurable objectives. The theory is illustrated by many real concrete examples taken from a host of disciplinary settings. The standard approach in decision theory or decision analysis specifies a simplified single objective like monetary return to maximise. By generalising from the single objective case to the multiple objective case, this book considerably widens the range of applicability of decision analysis.
Operational research. Game theory --- Decision making --- Decision Making --- Multiple criteria decision making. --- Decision making. --- Decision Making. --- Multiple criteria decision making --- Civil & Environmental Engineering --- Decision making with multiple objectives --- MCDM (Decision making) --- Multiattribute decisions --- Multicriteria decision analysis --- Multicriteria decision making --- Multicriteria decision making analysis --- Multiobjective decision making --- Multiple objective decision making --- Citizen Science --- Problem Solving --- Deciding --- Decision (Psychology) --- Decision analysis --- Decision processes --- Making decisions --- Management --- Management decisions --- Choice (Psychology) --- Problem solving
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Besluitvorming --- Besluitvormingsanalyse --- Besluitvormingsprocessen --- Deciding --- Decision analysis --- Decision making --- Decision processes --- Decision-making --- Décision [Prise de ] --- Décision [Théorie de la ] --- Making decisions --- Management decisions --- Management--Beslissingen --- Management--Besluitvorming --- Management--Decision making --- Politique de la technologie --- Politique scientifique --- Politique scientifique et technique --- Politique technologique --- Prise de décision --- Science and state --- Staat en technologie --- State and technology --- Technologie -- Politique gouvernementale --- Technologie -- Regeringspolitiek --- Technologie en Staat --- Technologie et État --- Technology -- Government policy --- Technology and state --- Théorie de la décision --- Wetenschapsbeleid --- État et technologie --- Decision making. --- Science and state. --- Science --- Technology and state. --- Technology --- Social aspects. --- Social aspects --- Science - Social aspects. --- Technology - Social aspects. --- Decision-making.
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Besluitvorming --- Besluitvormingsanalyse --- Besluitvormingsprocessen --- Classificatie en selectie (Statistiek) --- Classification et sélection (Statistique) --- Deciding --- Decision analysis --- Decision making --- Decision processes --- Decision-making --- Décision [Prise de ] --- Décision [Théorie de la ] --- Ensembles flous --- Fuzzy sets --- Making decisions --- Management decisions --- Management--Beslissingen --- Management--Besluitvorming --- Management--Decision making --- Prise de décision --- Ranking and selection (Statistics) --- Théorie de la décision --- Vage verzamelingen --- Fuzzy decision making. --- 519.8 --- Fuzzy decision making --- Fuzzy mathematics --- Selection and ranking (Statistics) --- Mathematical statistics --- Order statistics --- Operational research --- Ranking and selection (Statistics). --- 519.8 Operational research --- Mathematical logic --- Prise de décision
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