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This paper analyzes the short-term forecasts for industrial and developing countries produced by the International Monetary Fund, and published twice a year in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). For the industrial country group, the WEO forecasts for output growth and inflation are satisfactory and pass most conventional tests in forecasting economic developments, although forecast accuracy has not improved over time, and predicting the turning points of the business cycle remains a weakness. For the developing countries, the task of forecasting movements in economic activity is even more difficult and the conventional measures of forecast accuracy are less satisfactory than for the industrial countries.

Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Forecasting --- General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Trade: Forecasting and Simulation --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Trade: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Economic Forecasting --- International economics --- Economic forecasting --- Production growth --- Export performance --- Current account balance --- Production --- Prices --- International trade --- Balance of payments --- Economic theory --- Exports --- Japan