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This paper examines stabilization policies in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos since the late 1980s. Compared with other transition economies, the Indochinese countries avoided an output collapse and moved quickly to strong GDP growth and low inflation. Each adopted a similar mix of policies centered on flexible exchange rates, high real interest rates, fiscal adjustment through expenditure cuts, and the imposition of hard budget constraints on public enterprises. In none of the countries was an exchange rate anchor considered feasible, and money-based stabilization proved effective, despite evident instability in the demand for money.

Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Financial Markets --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rates --- Currency markets --- Commercial banks --- Currencies --- Financial markets --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Foreign exchange market --- Banks and banking --- Vietnam

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This paper studies the behavior of interest rate differentials in Mexico during the 1992-94 period. It shows that the currency risk premia is positively related to the share of peso denominated debt in total debt and that the magnitude of this effect is considerable. For every 1 percentage point increase in the ratio of peso denominated debt in total debt, the interest rate differential increases between 20 and 30 basis points. In light of this result, and to get a better measure of the expectation of a devaluation during the period, the observed interest rate differential is adjusted for the change in the composition of public debt. In contrast to the behavior of the interest rate differential, the adjusted measure remained at extremely high levels throughout 1994, signalling a low level of confidence in the announced currency band.

Foreign Exchange --- Investments: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Return on investment --- Currencies --- Exchange rates --- Crawling peg --- Depreciation --- National accounts --- Money --- Saving and investment --- Mexico

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This paper analyzes a broad range of price and nonprice indicators to assess developments in the international competitiveness of the French economy during the 1980s and early 1990s. The paper provides a brief review of conceptual issues concerning the competitiveness indicators used in this study. Developments in conventional price- and cost-based indicators, both at the aggregate and bilateral levels, are reported. The paper discusses additional price- and quantity-based measures of competitiveness, and also examines the labor market dynamics and economic policy of France.

Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Manufacturing industries --- International economics --- Output gap --- Labor markets --- Capacity utilization --- Production --- Economic theory --- Labor market --- Industrial capacity --- Labor economics --- France

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This paper is a response to the literature that tests for cointegration between national stock market indices. It argues that apparent findings of cointegration in other studies may often be due to the use of asymptotic, rather than small-sample, critical values. In fact, economic theory suggests that cointegration is unlikely to be observed in efficient markets. However, this paper finds some evidence for the long-horizon predictability of relative returns, and the existence of “winner-loser” reversals across 16 national equity markets. A conclusion is that national stock market indices include a common world component and two country-specific components, one permanent and one transitory.

Econometrics --- Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- International Financial Markets --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Finance --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Investment & securities --- Stock markets --- Asset prices --- Vector autoregression --- Stocks --- Price indexes --- Financial markets --- Prices --- Financial institutions --- Econometric analysis --- Stock exchanges --- United States

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Previous tests for convexity in the Phillips curve have been biased because researchers have employed filtering techniques for the NAIRU that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the existence of convexity. This paper places linear and nonlinear models of the Phillips curve on an equal statistical footing by estimating model-consistent measures of the NAIRU. After imposing plausible restrictions on the variability in the NAIRU we find that the nonlinear model fits the data best. The implications for the macroeconomic policy debate is that policymakers that are unsuccessful in stabilizing the business cycle will induce a higher natural rate of unemployment.

Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Economic growth --- Unemployment rate --- Real interest rates --- Business cycles --- Securities markets --- Prices --- Financial services --- Financial markets --- Unemployment --- Interest rates --- Capital market --- United States