Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper uses a rich new data set of option prices on the dollar-mark, dollar-yen, and key EMS cross-rates to extract the entire risk-neutral probability density function (pdf) over horizons of one and three months. We compare three alternative smoothing methods---cubic splines, an implied binomial tree (trimmed and untrimmed), and a mixture of lognormals---for transforming option data into the pdf. Despite their methodological ifferences, the three approaches lead to a similar pdf distinct from the lognormal benchmark, and usually characterized by skewness and leptokurtosis. We then document a striking positive correlation between skewness in these pdfs and the spot rate. The stronger a currency the more expectations are skewed towards a further appreciation of that currency. We interpret this finding as a rejection that these exchange rates evolve as a martingale, or that they follow a credible target zone, explicit or implicit. Instead, this this positive correlation is consistent with target zones with endogenous realignment risk. We discuss two interpretations of our results on skewness: when a currency is stronger, the actual probability of further large appreciation is higher, or because of risk, such states are valued more highly.

Foreign exchange

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Foreign exchange administration --- Foreign exchange rates --- Investments

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Foreign exchange rates --- Economic stabilization

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper builds a model of adjustment toward PPP for a panel of real exchange rates. The model eliminates some inconsistencies in previous models, which implied a model for the real exchange rate of country B relative to country C that was not commensurate with the posited model of the real exchange rate for A relative to B, and A relative to C. The model allows us to handle correlations across exchange rates in a panel in a natural way. We put restrictions on an underlying model which yields a simple covariance matrix that can be easily estimated by GLS methods. We also put restrictions on the underlying model which allow us to easily estimate a panel PPP model in which the speed of adjustment is not the same for all real exchange rates. Our model, applied to the price levels of eight cities in four countries and two continents, does not find evidence in favor of reversion of PPP.

Foreign exchange rates --- Econometric models.

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment is now a standard concept in international macroeconomic theory and policy. However, there is neither a consensus indicator of misalignment, nor an agreed upon methodology for constructing such an indicator. This paper constructs an indicator of RER misalignment for a large sample of developed and developing countries. This indicator is based on a well-structured but simple extension of an IS-LM model of an open economy. The paper then uses regression analysis to explore whether RER misalignments are related to country growth experiences. Interestingly the work finds that there are important non-linearities in the relationship. Only very high over-valuations" appear to be associated with slower economic growth, while moderate to high (but not very high) under-valuations appear to be associated with more rapid economic growth.

Foreign exchange rates --- Econometric models.