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AA / International- internationaal --- 333.139.2 --- 333.17 --- Banks and banking --- Financial crises --- 330.05 --- 332.1 --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Business cycles --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Bankcontrole en -reglementering. Reglementering van het bankberoep. --- Crises, saneringen en hervormingen van het bankwezen. --- Financial crises. --- Bankcontrole en -reglementering. Reglementering van het bankberoep --- Crises, saneringen en hervormingen van het bankwezen

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This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.

Devaluation of currency. --- Economic indicators. --- Financial crises. --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Business indicators --- Economic indicators --- Indicators, Business --- Indicators, Economic --- Leading indicators --- Economic history --- Quality of life --- Economic forecasting --- Index numbers (Economics) --- Social indicators --- Currency devaluation --- Money --- Currency question --- Monetary policy --- Devaluation --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy --- International Financial Markets --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Banking --- Finance --- Real exchange rates --- Currency crises --- International reserves --- Currency markets --- Early warning systems --- Financial crises --- Central banks --- Financial markets --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Foreign exchange market --- Crisis management --- United States