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This paper investigates the causes of the recent disinflation in Spain. A standard Phillips curve model is used to disentangle the contributions of three possible shocks: an adverse demand shock that raises unemployment, a positive supply shock resulting from relative price adjustments or structural improvements in the labor market, and a credibility shock that lowers inflationary expectations. The main element underlying Spain’s recent disinflation appears to be a fall in inflation expectations, thanks to the country’s commitment to participate in Economic and Monetary Union from the start, and policy actions geared to that end.
Inflation --- Labor --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Macroeconomics --- Labour --- income economics --- Disinflation --- Wage bargaining --- Output gap --- Real wages --- Prices --- Production --- Wages --- Economic theory --- Spain
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This paper argues that the development of human capital in the public sector should be an important ingredient in any proposed set of “second-generation” reforms for Africa. In the post-colonial era the quality of governance has seriously declined, and the stock of human capital in the public sector has been eroded by a flight of human capital from many countries in response to compression of wages. The paper develops a simple theoretical framework to discuss these issues and the continent’s experience with foreign technical assistance in supplementing the low level of domestic human capital.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government --- International Migration --- Wage Level and Structure --- Wage Differentials --- Economywide Country Studies: Africa --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Public Enterprises --- Public-Private Enterprises --- Labour --- income economics --- Civil service & public sector --- Human capital --- Public sector --- Wages --- Public sector wages --- Real wages --- Economic sectors --- Finance, Public --- Ghana
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The paper investigates the determinants of wages in the tradables and service sectors in Norway and Sweden. Tradables wages are determined by their own productivity growth whereas service sector wages are influenced by wage growth in the tradables sector. The traditional strong sensitivity of the real wage to changes in the unemployment rate has been virtually eliminated since the recessionary period in the early 1990s in Sweden, and real wages have grown faster than macroeconomic factors alone would suggest. In contrast, real wages have become more sensitive to cyclical conditions in Norway and have grown less rapidly than macroeconomic factors indicate. These changes in the wage process have hindered the development of private sector employment in Sweden but have stimulated private sector employment in Norway.
Labor --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Labour --- income economics --- Real wages --- Wages --- Wage adjustments --- Unemployment rate --- Labor markets --- Wage bargaining --- Unemployment --- Labor market --- Norway
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The paper investigates the relationship between labor taxation and unemployment in Sweden by estimating a labor market model that includes a wage-setting locus and labor demand and supply relationships. The study simulates the effect of a 1 percentage point increase in the payroll tax and in total tax rates. The increase in the payroll tax pushes up labor costs by about ½ percent over a 5–10 year time horizon. Hours worked fall by 0.5 percent and the unemployment rate rises by 0.3 percentage point. The increase in total tax rates generates a similar result. Therefore, it appears that increases in taxes have adversely affected employment and unemployment in Sweden.
Labor --- Taxation --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Welfare & benefit systems --- Payroll tax --- Real wages --- Labor markets --- Labor taxes --- Wages --- Taxes --- Fiscal policy --- Labor market --- Income tax --- Sweden
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Since the mid-1970s, there has been considerable research on the macroeconomic consequences of wage indexation. Nonetheless, until recently, this research had not explicitly explored the implications of contracts that index wages to lagged inflation, the usual type of wage indexation observed in practice. Drawing mainly on recent research by the author, this paper examines the consequences of wage indexation to lagged inflation on aggregate wage formation, the cost of disinflation under money- and exchange-rate-based stabilization, the variability of output under alternative shocks and policy regimes, the choice of exchange rate regime, and the level and variability of inflation.
Inflation --- Labor --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Monetary Policy --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Macroeconomics --- Wage indexation --- Wage adjustments --- Real wages --- Prices --- United States
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This Selected Issues paper explores the determinants of Greece’s potential output, an exercise that could shed light on its current cyclical position, as well as on its medium-term growth prospects. To that end, a production function is estimated, with capital and labor as factors of production and time-varying total factor productivity. The estimation results suggest that the output gap has been closing in recent years, with output projected to be slightly above potential in 1998. The paper also explores the impact of changes in the drachma’s exchange rate on inflation.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Labour --- income economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public finance & taxation --- Total factor productivity --- Output gap --- Potential output --- Exchange rates --- Prices --- Real wages --- Economic theory --- Wages --- Industrial productivity --- Greece
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This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Mozambique highlights that in the period 1987–97, the economy of Mozambique made impressive gains. Real GDP and exports grew on average by 6.8 percent and 15.6 percent, respectively, and the ratio of investment to GDP rose from 36.1 percent in 1987 to 45.2 percent in 1997. In the two years ended December 1996, the 12-month inflation rate fell dramatically from 70.1 percent to 16.6 percent.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Education --- Health economics --- Expenditure --- Total expenditures --- Current spending --- Real wages --- Prices --- Expenditures, Public --- Wages --- Income --- Mozambique, Republic of
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This Selected Issues paper on Sweden reviews economic developments in Sweden during 1994–98. In 1994, the general government expenditure-to-GDP ratio stood at 70 percent, up from below 60 percent of GDP in the late 1990s; meanwhile, the revenue ratio was just under 60 percent of GDP, down from about 65 percent of GDP in the late 1980s. On the expenditure side, transfers to households accounted for 37 percent of general government expenditure in 1994, subsidies and other transfers to businesses 10 percent, consumption 39 percent, investment 4 percent, and interest payments 10 percent.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Demography --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Pensions --- Public finance & taxation --- Welfare & benefit systems --- Real wages --- Wages --- Pension spending --- Payroll tax --- Expenditure --- Taxes --- Fiscal policy --- Labor market --- Income tax --- Sweden
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The paper analyzes the ability of a regional labor market to absorb growing flows of immigrant workers with declining levels of skills during relatively high unemployment. The impact of the size of the flow and the skill characteristics of the immigrants are analyzed. It is found that immigration is positively related to unemployment in the short run but in the long run is negatively related. Also, a higher average skill level among immigrants makes them more effective in their job search in the short run. Finally, increasing the discrepancy between the skill distribution of immigrants and that of the existing workforce is desirable, as both types of labor appear to be complements in the short-run.
Labor --- Emigration and Immigration --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- International Migration --- Geographic Labor Mobility --- Immigrant Workers --- Wage Level and Structure --- Wage Differentials --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Migration, immigration & emigration --- Migration --- Labor markets --- Unemployment rate --- Real wages --- Population and demographics --- Emigration and immigration --- Labor market --- Canada
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This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes Germany’s past fiscal policy behavior and assesses the likely adjustments that would be necessary to bring future fiscal policy behavior in line with European Monetary Union and the Stability and Growth Pact requirements. Using estimated fiscal policy reaction functions that take account Germany’s decentralized fiscal decision-making structure, the statistical results suggest that discretionary fiscal policy at the general government level has maintained a procyclical stance since the end of the 1970s. The paper also examines disaggregated labor market developments in Germany.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Production and Operations Management --- Fiscal Policy --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Labour --- income economics --- Welfare & benefit systems --- Public finance & taxation --- Fiscal policy --- Labor markets --- Real wages --- Labor market --- Economic theory --- Income tax --- Germany
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