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Debt --- Deflation (Finance) --- Financial crises
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This study establishes a framework for analyzing the major determinants of inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran. An empirical model was estimated by taking into consideration disequilibria in the markets for money, foreign exchange, and goods. Results strongly support the need for a sustained prudent monetary policy in order to reduce inflation and stabilize the foreign exchange market. The estimation shows that an excess money supply generates an increase in the rate of inflation that, in turn, intensifies asset substitution (from money to foreign exchange), thereby weakening real demand for money and exerting pressures on the foreign exchange market. The study also found that a permanent rise in real income tends to increase the real demand for money and reduces inflation in the long run.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Demand for Money --- Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rates --- Multiple currency practices --- Demand for money --- Prices --- Money --- Iran, Islamic Republic of
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This paper examines the relevance of PPP, the adjustment channel of real exchange rate and the predictability of the movement in nominal exchange rate by studying the behavior of yen/DM exchange rate, using cointegration method. Results support PPP and find that the real exchange rate is mean-reverting. The change in the nominal exchange rate exhibits significant auto-regressive property. These findings imply that movements in the nominal yen/DM exchange rate is actually predictable. The error-correction model and a simple first order autoregressive model both outperform the random walk model in out-of-sample forecasting.
Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rates --- Purchasing power parity --- Real exchange rates --- Wholesale price indexes --- Export price indexes --- Prices --- Price indexes --- United States
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Empirical evidence on the distribution of relative price changes almost invariably reveals high kurtosis and a tendency toward right-skewness. Simple mixed distribution models including volatile and infrequently adjusted prices can account for these and other common features, such as correlation between the mean and variance of relative prices. In such circumstances, robust measures of central tendency are likely to outperform the mean or standard measures of “core” inflation as indicators of generalized inflation. The analysis also supports the use of geometric averaging in CPI construction and the targeting of the geometric mean inflation rate rather than the Laspeyres mean.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Demography --- Index Numbers and Aggregation --- leading indicators --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Demographic Economics: General --- Population & demography --- Population and demographics --- Consumer price indexes --- Consumer prices --- Price indexes --- Prices --- Population --- United States
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This Selected Issues paper on the Kingdom of the Netherlands reviews the cyclical position of the Dutch economy, and provides a comparison of different estimates of the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment and the potential output. The study analyzes the adjustment mechanisms embedded in the central projections of a number of forecasters, and investigates the sensitivity of the outlook to upside demand risks using macroeconometric models. The paper also evaluates the effect of changes in the monetary and fiscal policies, key features of labor, and asset markets.
Inflation --- Labor --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Labour --- income economics --- Macroeconomics --- Labor costs --- Labor markets --- Wages --- Unemployment --- Prices --- Labor market --- Netherlands, The
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Ireland continues to achieve spectacular economic growth. Strains associated with the rapid growth have become more visible. Fiscal policy should be tightened to restrain excess demand pressures. Strict adherence to the agreed wage increases under the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness (PPF) is critical. The government's plans to simplify the tax structure are commended. Ireland's participation in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) pilot project is commended. The sustained rapid growth in private sector lending requires vigilance. The government support for trade liberalization process is welcome.
Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Fiscal Policy --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal stance --- Wages --- Public sector wages --- Prices --- Ireland
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This paper examines the historical effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on world prices and economic activity. The analysis indicates that ENSO has economically-important and statistically-significant effects on world real commodity prices. A one-standard-deviation positive surprise in ENSO, for example, raises real commodity price inflation about 3-1/2 to 4 percentage points. Moreover, ENSO appears to account for almost 20 percent of commodity price inflation movements over the past several years. ENSO also has some explanatory power for world consumer price inflation and world economic activity, accounting for about 10 to 20 percent of movements in those variables.
Investments: Commodities --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Commodity Markets --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Agriculture: General --- Investment & securities --- Commodity prices --- Commodities --- Consumer prices --- Agricultural commodities --- Commercial products --- Farm produce --- Australia
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For a sample of US industries, nominal wage and price inflation follow aggregate price inflation closely during economic expansions. Hence, fluctuations in profit markup and real output are moderate in the face of expansionary demand shocks. During recessions, however, industrial nominal wage deflation exceeds that of the aggregate price level. This is in contras to producers’ attempt to maintain, or even increase, industrial real price inflation during recessions. Consistently, the increase in the profit markup is correlated with an increase in output contraction and a reduction in workers’ real standard of living during recessions.
Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic growth --- Wages --- Real wages --- Business cycles --- Wage indexation --- Prices --- Cost of living --- Cost and standard of living --- United States
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This paper describes the primary framework associating the four principal price indices in the system of economic statistics—the Producer Price Index (PPI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Export and Import Price Indices (XPI and MPI)—with the macroeconomic value aggregates they decompose into price and volume components. The paper begins by defining the basic algebra of price indices. It then discusses the definition of the value aggregates comprising the goods and services components of the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA). The paper concludes by briefly considering purchasing power parities and labor compensation indices.
Macroeconomics --- Index Numbers and Aggregation --- leading indicators --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Model Evaluation and Selection --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Consumption --- National accounts --- Price indexes --- Consumer price indexes --- Producer price indexes --- Prices --- Economics --- National income --- Australia
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This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. The paper then compares results from some of these methods to the case of Sweden, showing the range of estimates.
Inflation --- Labor --- Production and Operations Management --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics --- Labour --- income economics --- Potential output --- Output gap --- Unemployment --- Unemployment rate --- Production --- Prices --- Economic theory --- Sweden
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