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Untersuchungen zu Verschuldung und Deflation
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ISBN: 3428096738 Year: 2000 Publisher: Berlin Duncker & Humblot

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Determinants of Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran : A Macroeconomic Analysis
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ISBN: 1462382193 1452721971 1282106449 9786613799791 1451900228 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This study establishes a framework for analyzing the major determinants of inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran. An empirical model was estimated by taking into consideration disequilibria in the markets for money, foreign exchange, and goods. Results strongly support the need for a sustained prudent monetary policy in order to reduce inflation and stabilize the foreign exchange market. The estimation shows that an excess money supply generates an increase in the rate of inflation that, in turn, intensifies asset substitution (from money to foreign exchange), thereby weakening real demand for money and exerting pressures on the foreign exchange market. The study also found that a permanent rise in real income tends to increase the real demand for money and reduces inflation in the long run.


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Predictable Movements in Yen/DM Exchange Rates
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ISBN: 146239731X 1452786534 1282008609 9786613795731 1451901518 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines the relevance of PPP, the adjustment channel of real exchange rate and the predictability of the movement in nominal exchange rate by studying the behavior of yen/DM exchange rate, using cointegration method. Results support PPP and find that the real exchange rate is mean-reverting. The change in the nominal exchange rate exhibits significant auto-regressive property. These findings imply that movements in the nominal yen/DM exchange rate is actually predictable. The error-correction model and a simple first order autoregressive model both outperform the random walk model in out-of-sample forecasting.


Book
Relative Prices, Inflation and Core Inflation
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ISBN: 1462359094 1452706883 1281331414 1451894694 9786613778802 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Empirical evidence on the distribution of relative price changes almost invariably reveals high kurtosis and a tendency toward right-skewness. Simple mixed distribution models including volatile and infrequently adjusted prices can account for these and other common features, such as correlation between the mean and variance of relative prices. In such circumstances, robust measures of central tendency are likely to outperform the mean or standard measures of “core” inflation as indicators of generalized inflation. The analysis also supports the use of geometric averaging in CPI construction and the targeting of the geometric mean inflation rate rather than the Laspeyres mean.


Book
Netherlands : Selected Issues.
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ISBN: 1462362443 1452705291 1280897171 9786613738486 1452736669 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Selected Issues paper on the Kingdom of the Netherlands reviews the cyclical position of the Dutch economy, and provides a comparison of different estimates of the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment and the potential output. The study analyzes the adjustment mechanisms embedded in the central projections of a number of forecasters, and investigates the sensitivity of the outlook to upside demand risks using macroeconometric models. The paper also evaluates the effect of changes in the monetary and fiscal policies, key features of labor, and asset markets.


Book
Ireland : Staff Report for the 2000 Article IV Consultation.
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ISBN: 1462315097 145275568X 1280978082 1452788170 9786613749697 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Ireland continues to achieve spectacular economic growth. Strains associated with the rapid growth have become more visible. Fiscal policy should be tightened to restrain excess demand pressures. Strict adherence to the agreed wage increases under the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness (PPF) is critical. The government's plans to simplify the tax structure are commended. Ireland's participation in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) pilot project is commended. The sustained rapid growth in private sector lending requires vigilance. The government support for trade liberalization process is welcome.


Book
El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices : Warm Water or Hot Air?
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ISBN: 1462389015 1452783330 1283513277 9786613825728 1451919026 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines the historical effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on world prices and economic activity. The analysis indicates that ENSO has economically-important and statistically-significant effects on world real commodity prices. A one-standard-deviation positive surprise in ENSO, for example, raises real commodity price inflation about 3-1/2 to 4 percentage points. Moreover, ENSO appears to account for almost 20 percent of commodity price inflation movements over the past several years. ENSO also has some explanatory power for world consumer price inflation and world economic activity, accounting for about 10 to 20 percent of movements in those variables.


Book
Cost of Living Adjustment and Business Cycles : Disaggregated Evidence
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ISBN: 1462319645 1451985401 128210666X 145189998X 9786613800015 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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For a sample of US industries, nominal wage and price inflation follow aggregate price inflation closely during economic expansions. Hence, fluctuations in profit markup and real output are moderate in the face of expansionary demand shocks. During recessions, however, industrial nominal wage deflation exceeds that of the aggregate price level. This is in contras to producers’ attempt to maintain, or even increase, industrial real price inflation during recessions. Consistently, the increase in the profit markup is correlated with an increase in output contraction and a reduction in workers’ real standard of living during recessions.


Book
A Framework for Price Statistics
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ISBN: 1462330908 1452775524 1281605026 1451891970 9786613785718 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper describes the primary framework associating the four principal price indices in the system of economic statistics—the Producer Price Index (PPI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Export and Import Price Indices (XPI and MPI)—with the macroeconomic value aggregates they decompose into price and volume components. The paper begins by defining the basic algebra of price indices. It then discusses the definition of the value aggregates comprising the goods and services components of the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA). The paper concludes by briefly considering purchasing power parities and labor compensation indices.


Book
Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap : An Application to Sweden
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ISBN: 146236313X 1452792658 1281602019 1451894775 9786613782700 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. The paper then compares results from some of these methods to the case of Sweden, showing the range of estimates.

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