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Instrumental variables and the search for identification / from supply and demand to natural experiments.
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Year: 2001 Publisher: Cambridge National Bureau Of Economic Research. Working Paper Nr. 8456

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Another look at whether a rising tide lifts all boats.
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Year: 2001 Publisher: Cambridge National Bureau Of Economic Research. Working Paper Nr. 8412

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Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification : From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2001 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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The method of instrumental variables was first used in the 1920s to estimate supply and demand elasticities, and later used to correct for measurement error in single-equation models. Recently, instrumental variables have been widely used to reduce bias from omitted variables in estimates of causal relationships such as the effect of schooling on earnings. Intuitively, instrumental variables methods use only a portion of the variability in key variables to estimate the relationships of interest; if the instruments are valid, that portion is unrelated to the omitted variables. We discuss the mechanics of instrumental variables, and the qualities that make for a good instrument, devoting particular attention to instruments that are derived from 'natural experiments.' A key feature of the natural experiments approach is the transparency and refutability of identifying assumptions. We also discuss the use of instrumental variables in randomized experiments.

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Another Look at Whether a Rising Tide Lifts All Boats
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2001 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Periods of rapid U.S. economic growth during the 1960s and 1970s coincided with improved living standards for many segments of the population, including the disadvantaged as well as the affluent, suggesting to some that a rising economic tide lifts all demographic boats. This paper investigates the impact of U.S. business cycle conditions on population well-being since the 1970s. Aggregate employment and hours worked in this period are strongly procyclical, particularly for low-skilled workers, while aggregate real wages are only mildly procyclical. Similar patterns appear in a balanced panel of PSID respondents that removes the effects of changing workforce composition, though the magnitude of the responsiveness of real wages to unemployment appears to have declined in the last 20 years. Economic upturns increase the likelihood that workers acquire jobs in sectors with positively sloped career ladders. Spending by state and local governments in all categories rises during economic expansions, including welfare spending, for which needs vary countercyclically. Since the disadvantaged are likely to benefit disproportionately from such government spending, it follows that the public finances also contribute to conveying the benefits of a strong economy to diverse population groups.

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