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2001 (2)

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Book
Are African Current Account Deficits Different? Stylized Facts, Transitory Shocks, and Decomposition Analysis
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462370292 1452771502 1281603309 1451890362 9786613783998 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the behavior of current account deficits in Africa and estimates whether the deficits are excessive with respect to fundamentals. The findings are the deficits are (i) not very persistent; (ii) positively linked with domestic growth; (iii) strongly linked with public (and private) savings, suggesting that fiscal consolidation in IMF-supported programs may be relatively effective; (iv) linked with aid flows, so as to close the external gap, and (v) linked with currency depreciation and the terms of trade. The deficit is "excessive," as it is almost 3 percent of the gross national disposable income above the equilibrium level.


Book
Determinants of Private Capital Flows in the 1970's and 1990's : Is there Evidence of Contagion?
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462351018 1452734127 1281602833 1451895186 9786613783523 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper studies the determinants of private capital flows to developing countries during the last two episodes of large inflows, the late 1970s-early 1980s and the 1990s. The paper also tests for contagion effects in capital flows among recipient countries, and tries to identify specific channels through which such effects can occur. It tests for neighborhood effects, trade-related effects, and for contagion based on the countries having similar macroeconomic indicators. The results show strong evidence for the first two effects during the 1990s, and indicate that the third effect varies depending on the type of capital flow.

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