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This paper analyzes the behavior of current account deficits in Africa and estimates whether the deficits are excessive with respect to fundamentals. The findings are the deficits are (i) not very persistent; (ii) positively linked with domestic growth; (iii) strongly linked with public (and private) savings, suggesting that fiscal consolidation in IMF-supported programs may be relatively effective; (iv) linked with aid flows, so as to close the external gap, and (v) linked with currency depreciation and the terms of trade. The deficit is "excessive," as it is almost 3 percent of the gross national disposable income above the equilibrium level.
Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- International Finance: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Current account deficits --- Current account --- Private savings --- Terms of trade --- Current account balance --- Balance of payments --- National accounts --- International trade --- Saving and investment --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Sierra Leone
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This paper studies the determinants of private capital flows to developing countries during the last two episodes of large inflows, the late 1970s-early 1980s and the 1990s. The paper also tests for contagion effects in capital flows among recipient countries, and tries to identify specific channels through which such effects can occur. It tests for neighborhood effects, trade-related effects, and for contagion based on the countries having similar macroeconomic indicators. The results show strong evidence for the first two effects during the 1990s, and indicate that the third effect varies depending on the type of capital flow.
Exports and Imports --- International Finance: General --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- International Financial Markets --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Trade: General --- International economics --- Finance --- Private capital flows --- Capital flows --- Capital inflows --- Foreign direct investment --- Exports --- Balance of payments --- International trade --- Capital movements --- Investments, Foreign --- Brazil
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