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The high priority recommendations from the data report on the observance of standards and codes mission covered both general and sector-specific issues relating to the national accounts, consumer and producer price indices, government finance statistics, monetary statistics, and balance-of-payments statistics. Progress has been made in implementing the recommendation on data sharing and coordination among agencies. A high-level statistics producers committee has been established. Progress on quarterly national accounts data has been slow because of poor response rates to the surveys.
Botswana --- Economic conditions. --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Producer price indexes --- National accounts --- Consumer price indexes --- Prices --- Price indexes --- National income
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This paper presents an empirical measure of disinflation credibility and discusses its evolution in Turkey since the 2001 crisis. The results indicate that credibility has improved markedly over this period, boding well for the future of disinflation in Turkey.
Bayesian statistical decision theory. --- Deflation (Finance) --- Disinflation --- Finance --- Bayes' solution --- Bayesian analysis --- Statistical decision --- Econometric models. --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- International Finance Forecasting and Simulation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary economics --- Inflation targeting --- Consumer price indexes --- Asset prices --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Price indexes --- Turkey
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This paper reexamines Korea's trade flows. Using the standard demand-based models, the paper finds that owing to the increasing share of electrical and electronic products (EEPs) in total exports, the income elasticity of the Korean export demand has fallen sharply while its price elasticity has risen dramatically. This is a curious result, which begs the question of why. Accordingly, an alternative supply-based model shows that the sharp increase in exports of EEPs is mainly due to Korea's remarkable ability to make technological improvements in their production. After reestimating the standard import equation, the paper finds estimates similar to those from previous studies. Since most of these imports are industrial inputs, they are jointly determined by consumption, fixed investment, and exports.
Exports --- Imports --- International trade --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Trade: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- International economics --- Price elasticity --- Personal income --- Export prices --- Prices --- Income --- Korea, Republic of
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This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evolution. This involves combining a short-term model, which attempts to distill the forecasting power of a variety of monthly indicators purely on goodness-of-fit criteria, with an equilibrium-correction model that pins down the convergence of core inflation to its longer-run structural determinants. The result is a promising model for forecasting Thai core inflation over horizons up to 10, 24, and 55 months, based on a root mean-squared error criterion as well as a mean absolute error criterion.
Inflation (Finance) --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Forecasting. --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Forecasting --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Economic Forecasting --- Price indexes --- Consumer price indexes --- Economic forecasting --- Import price indexes --- Prices --- Thailand
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This paper uses the Sjaastad model to estimate the optimal currency area for the Nepalese rupee and concludes that, currently, Nepal may be reasonably well off with its peg to the Indian rupee. As its economy opens and its trade base and trading partners expand, it may want to reevaluate whether moving toward an exchange rate basket including the U.S. dollar may be a better policy choice. The regression results indicate that, currently, the prices of imported goods in Nepal are solely influenced by India, suggesting that with the peg to the Indian rupee, Nepal can isolate the import side of its economy completely from external shocks. On the export side, the regression results indicate that Nepalese export prices seem, to a large extent, to be influenced by U.S. prices. However, the export price index had to be constructed, and the construction methodology is likely to entail an overestimation of the impact of the U.S. dollar.
Currency question -- Nepal. --- Exports -- Prices -- Nepal. --- Foreign exchange administration -- Nepal. --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Trade: General --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Exports --- Currencies --- Export prices --- Import prices --- Money --- Imports --- Prices --- United States --- Foreign exchange administration --- Currency question
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This paper proposes a new taxonomy of monetary regimes defined by the choice and clarity of the nominal anchor. The regimes are as follows: (i) monetary nonautonomy, (ii) weak anchor, (iii) money anchor, (iv) exchange rate peg, (v) full-fledged inflation targeting, (vi) implicit price stability anchor, and (vii) inflation targeting lite. This taxonomy captures the commitment-discretion tradeoffs that lie at the heart of choosing a monetary regime. During the last 15 years the world has moved toward monetary regimes with less discretion. Empirical analysis suggests that country regime choices reflect the level of financial and economic development and recent inflation history.
Monetary policy. --- Foreign exchange administration. --- Disclosure of information. --- Information, Disclosure of --- Truthfulness and falsehood --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Inflation targeting --- Price stabilization --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Monetary policy --- Prices --- Government policy --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
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In response to high and chronic inflation, countries have adopted different stabilization policies. However, the extent to which these stabilization programs were designed for political motives is not clear. Since exchange-rate-based stabilizations (ERBS) create an initial consumption boom followed by a contraction, whereas money-based stabilizations (MBS) generate a consumption bust followed by a recovery, policymakers may consider the timing of elections when determining the nominal anchor for stabilization. This paper finds strong evidence that the choice of nominal anchor depends on elections, implying the existence of political opportunism. ERBS are, on average, launched before elections while MBS are set after them.
Economic stabilization --- Foreign exchange rates --- Inflation (Finance) --- Adjustment, Economic --- Business stabilization --- Economic adjustment --- Stabilization, Economic --- Economic policy --- Econometric models. --- Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Nominal anchors --- International reserves --- Exchange rate anchor --- Consumption --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Economics --- Argentina
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This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic analysis. I construct and compare common output gap measures for five European countries. Since output above potential reflects domestic inflationary pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a simple simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for the period 1990-2002. The main conclusions are that an output gap rarely provides useful information and that there is no single best output gap measure across countries.
Inflation (Finance) --- Monetary policy --- Economic forecasting --- Econometric models. --- Inflation --- Labor --- Forecasting --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Forecasting --- Labour --- income economics --- Output gap --- Potential output --- Unemployment rate --- Production --- Economic theory --- Unemployment --- Prices --- United Kingdom
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The paper finds a significant shift in the economic characteristics of civil conflicts during the1990s. Conflicts have become shorter but with more severe contractions and a stronger recovery of growth. The overall length and cost of the conflict cycle has probably declined. The stance of macroeconomic policy was an important factor while the underlying "conflict process" remained unchanged. This shift seems related to changes in aid flows since the Cold War: donors became disinclined to provide support during conflict, but more inclined after conflict. These findings are buttressed by the post-conflict experience of countries that received financial assistance from the IMF and of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). These findings have implications for policy and aid priorities after conflict.
Economic geography -- Indonesia -- Econometric models. --- Industrial location -- Indonesia -- Econometric models. --- Wages -- Indonesia -- Econometric models. --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Labour --- income economics --- Manufacturing industries --- Wages --- Manufacturing --- Labor force --- Price indexes --- Wage adjustments --- Labor market --- Indonesia --- Economic geography --- Industrial location --- Econometric models.
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