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"The literature contains few impact evaluations of health sector reforms, especially those involving broad and simultaneous changes on both the demand and supply sides of the sector. This paper reports the results of a World Bank-funded health sector reform project in China known as Health VIII. On the supply-side, the project combined infrastructure investments (especially at the township level) with improved planning and management, including a referral system between township health centers and county hospitals, and interventions aimed at improving the effectiveness and quality of care, including the introduction of clinical protocols and essential drug lists. On the demand-side, the project sought to resurrect community health insurance, and to introduce a safety net for the very poor to provide them with financial assistance with their health care expenses. The evaluation reported here concerns just one of the project's seven provinces, namely Gansu, the reason being that no suitable data are available to undertake a rigorous evaluation in all provinces. This paper makes use of a panel dataset collected for quite another purpose but whose timing (just around the time the project started and four years later) and location (covering both project and non-project counties) makes it well-suited to the task. The paper compares estimates obtained using a variety of different estimators, including naive single differences (before and after, and with and without the project), and differences-in-differences, adjusting for heterogeneity through both regression and matching methods. The results suggest that it makes a difference to the estimated impact of Health VIII which estimator is used, with the naive single differences producing often markedly different estimates from the preferred approach of combining difference-in-differences with matching. The results further suggest that Health VIII has been mostly successful in its goals. The preferred estimator suggests that the project reduced illness among children, improved self-assessed health, and increased doctor visits among the population in general, and reduced the incidence of catastrophic health spending, defined as annual spending in excess of 10 percent of annual per capita income. But the project appears to have increased the development and use of high-level facilities, hastened the demise of the village clinic, and may have reduced immunization rates. "--World Bank web site.

Econometric models.

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"Rutherford, Tarr, and Shepotylo use a computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. Their model is innovative in that they incorporate all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as "real" households in the model. This is accomplished because they develop a new algorithm for solving general equilibrium models with a large number of agents. In addition, they include foreign direct investment and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects in their trade and poverty analysis. In the medium term, the authors find that virtually all households gain from Russian WTO accession, with 99.9 percent of the estimated gains falling within a range between 2 and 25 percent increases in household income. They show that their estimates are decisively affected by liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in business services sectors and endogenous productivity effects in business services and goods. The authors use their integrated model to assess the error associated with a 'top down' approach to micro-simulation. They find that approximation errors introduced by failing to account for income effects in the conventional sequential approach are very small. However, data reconciliation between the national accounts and the household budget survey is important to the results. Despite the estimated gains for virtually all households in the medium term, many households may lose in the short term because of the costs of transition. So, safety nets are crucial for the poorest members of society during the transition. This paper--a product of the Trade Team, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the impact of trade on poverty".

Econometric models.

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Despite the large amount of empirical research on monetary policy rules, there is surprisingly little consensus on the nature or even the existence of changes in the conduct of U.S. monetary policy. Three issues appear central to this disagreement: 1) the specific type of changes in the policy coefficients, 2) the treatment of heteroskedasticity, and 3) the real-time nature of the data used. This paper addresses these issues in the context of forward-looking Taylor rules with drifting coefficients. The estimation is based on real-time data and accounts for the presence of heteroskedasticity in the policy shock. The findings suggest important but gradual changes in the rule coefficients, not adequately captured by the usual split-sample estimation. In contrast to Orphanides (2002, 2003), I find that the Fed's response to the real-time forecast of inflation was weak in the second half of the 1970's, perhaps not satisfying Taylor's principle as suggested by Clarida, Galìì and Gertler (2000). However, the response to inflation was strong before 1973 and gradually regained strength from the early 1980's onward. Moreover, as in Orphanides (2003), the Fed's response to real activity fell substantially and lastingly during the 1970's.

Monetary policy --- Econometric models.

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We propose a model of bounded rationality based on time-costs of deliberating current and future decisions. We model an individual decision maker's thinking process as a thought-experiment that takes time and let the decision maker "think ahead" about future decision problems in yet unrealized states of nature. By formulating an intertemporal, state-contingent, planning problem, which may involve costly deliberation in every state of nature, and by letting the decision-maker deliberate ahead of the realization of a state, we attempt to capture the basic idea that individuals generally do not think through a complete action-plan. Instead, individuals prioritize their thinking and leave deliberations on less important decisions to the time or event when they arise.

Decision making --- Econometric models.

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"Past approaches to correcting for unit nonresponse in sample surveys by re-weighting the data assume that the problem is ignorable within arbitrary subgroups of the population. Theory and evidence suggest that this assumption is unlikely to hold, and that household characteristics such as income systematically affect survey compliance. The authors show that this leaves a bias in the re-weighted data and they propose a method of correcting for this bias. The geographic structure of nonresponse rates allows them to identify a micro compliance function, which they then use to re-weight the unit-record data. An example is given for the U.S. Current Population Surveys, 1998-2004. The authors find, and correct for, a strong household income effect on response probabilities. "--World Bank web site.

Demographic surveys --- Social surveys --- Econometric models. --- Response rate --- Econometric models.