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2005 (19)

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Book
Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462302416 1452707790 1283512351 1451906463 9786613824806 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

A number of uncertainties about long-term expenditure commitments in industrial countries are examined: (i) the assumptions underlying the projections, (ii) the potential to further reduce non-age-related expenditures, (iii) the implicitly assumed absence of "shocks," and (iv) the potential for raising revenue. This paper concludes that (i) there is scope, but within narrow limits, to reduce non-age-related expenditures; (ii) fiscal policy frameworks tend to understate risks; and (iii) prevailing tax rates leave little room for increasing taxation in the countries facing the strongest aging pressures. In sum, governments will have to adopt a much more ambitious fiscal policy stance to cope with aging populations.


Book
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Netherlands : Staff Report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1455229822 1452789770 1280885858 9786613727169 1451885830 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This Netherlands’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that raising participation and productivity are important for boosting the economy potential and reducing pressures on the public finances in the face of population aging. The authorities have implemented or are in the process of implementing key reforms, including by tightening disability and unemployment benefits and early retirement arrangements, lessening inactivity traps, enhancing competition, and reducing the administrative burden. The financial system remains sound, resilient to potential adverse shocks, and well supervised.


Book
New Zealand : Selected Issues.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 146232410X 1451990642 1280885122 1451886012 9786613726438 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Selected Issues paper analyzes the effect of international migration on unemployment in New Zealand. The empirical results in this paper suggest that net migration inflows give rise to a fall in the unemployment rate. The paper estimates a system of equations including the unemployment rate, real wage, net migration rate, and labor force participation rate, taking into account the interdependence of the variables. It also examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on export firms’ decisions to hedge foreign exchange exposure.


Book
World Economic Outlook, September 2004 : The Global Demographic Transition.
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ISBN: 1462337015 1452710961 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.


Book
Aging : Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic
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ISBN: 1462384145 1451988370 1282107801 9786613801159 1451906269 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Projections of age-related public expenditure growth have raised widespread concerns about fiscal sustainability. This paper examines how total expenditure would develop under four policy rules on public expenditure growth. Some simple arithmetic of expenditure, GDP, and population is reviewed and applied in simulations for 19 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) over 2000-50. A general and a specific conclusion arise from the results in this paper: Generally, long-term expenditure projections could benefit from revisiting common assumptions on non-agerelated expenditure growth. Specifically, under realistic assumptions, the belt-tightening required to maintain fiscal sustainability under age-related spending pressures could be less painful than commonly thought.


Book
Global Aging and Fiscal Policy with International Labor Mobility : A Political Economy Perspective
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ISBN: 1462363954 1451985347 1283512734 1451906951 9786613825186 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper uses an overlapping generations model with international labor mobility and a politically responsive fiscal policy to examine aging in developed and developing regions. Migrant workers change the political structure composed of young and elderly voters in both labor-receiving and labor-sending countries. Numerical simulations show that the developed region benefits more from international labor mobility through the contribution of migrant workers as laborers, savers, and voters. The developing region experiences significant growth in all specifications but benefits more under international capital mobility. Restricting political participation of migrant workers in the developed region produces inferior growth results.


Book
Finland : Selected Issues.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462330266 1452769664 1280889225 1451880006 9786613730534 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The Selected Issues paper on Finland underlies public finances and structural reform. The structural reforms encompassing labor and product markets as well the pension system would substantially improve the outlook for fiscal sustainability. Reductions in labor and product market inefficiencies is estimated, on the basis of a staff computable general equilibrium model, to raise output and employment significantly while reducing the price level. Additional pension reforms could further increase employment, boost economic growth, and improve public finances, as could improved expenditure efficiency, thereby creating room for further reductions in labor income taxation.


Book
Belgium : Selected Issues.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462321240 1452700079 1280883766 9786613725073 1451876874 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Selected Issues paper analyzes the challenge of population aging for Belgium. It argues that the aging strategy should be broadened to include more explicitly the objective of raising employment rates to foster potential growth. The paper discusses assumptions underlying the official aging projections, and presents an alternative baseline scenario on the basis of unchanged policies. It discusses the feasibility of strategies that rely exclusively on either fiscal or labor market adjustment, and illustrates the benefits of a two-pronged strategy. The paper also examines employment effects of reductions in labor taxes in a wage-bargaining model.


Book
Czech Republic : Selected Issues.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1455274348 1452791864 1280883111 9786613724427 1451879083 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Selected Issues paper on the Czech Republic presents an analysis of various aspects of population aging: its macroeconomic effects; impact on fiscal sustainability; and implications for private savings. The paper simulates the macroeconomic effects of population aging in the Czech Republic using an overlapping-generations model. It finds that aging can significantly weaken the outlook for economic growth and living standards. The paper evaluates the fiscal implications of aging using a generational-accounting framework. It also evaluates the monetary policy implications of capital account volatility—as the relative importance of portfolio flows increases.


Book
Spain : Selected Issues.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462314120 1452776725 1283560852 145187961X 9786613873309 Year: 2005 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This Selected Issues paper contains two studies examining key issues for fiscal management and long-term fiscal sustainability in Spain. The first study discusses how best to ensure fiscal discipline at lower levels of government by examining the institutional setting and mechanisms that make this task particularly challenging in Spain’s highly devolved political and fiscal system. The second study seeks to analyze the potential macroeconomic impact of different approaches to deal with the fiscal costs of aging in Spain.

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