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In 2007 the General Statistics Office (GSO) launched a joint research program with the French Institute of Research for Development (IRD) to measure and analyzes the informal sector in Vietnam. Two kinds of surveys were conducted in 2007: a national Labour Force Survey (LFS) which, in a first for Vietnam classified labour by institutional sector thereby separating out the informal sector; and two specific surveys in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) which were grafted onto the LFS2007 to find out more about the characteristics of household businesses (HB) in general and especially the informal sector (HB&IS2007). This brief presents the main findings (both methodological and analytical) of these two rounds of LFS as regards the labour market and the informal economy in Vietnam. In the context of the global crisis, it looks at the dynamics of the main labour market indicators with a special focus on informal sector and informal employment between 2007 and 2009.For the first time ever in Vietnam, it is possible measure precisely the evolution of the informal economy and to check for the robustness of the estimates provided. In the conclusion the author outline some of the implications of the findings in terms of survey design and economic and social policies.
Agriculture --- Deregulation --- Developing Countries --- Economics --- Employment and Unemployment --- Financial Crisis --- Gdp --- Household Consumption --- Household Income --- Income Distribution --- Informal Sector --- Insurance --- Job Creation --- Labor Market --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Migrant Workers --- Poverty Reduction --- Productivity --- Respect --- Return Migration --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployment --- Urban Areas --- Wages --- Workers --- Working Hours
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Vietnam is one of the only South East Asian emerging economies not to have gone into recession in 2009 in the wake of the world crisis. Nonetheless, it has been affected deeply by the crisis, as shown by all macro-economic indicators. The yearly growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been slowing down from 8.5 percent in 2007 to 6.3 percent in 2008 then 5.3 percent in 2009, before recovering to 6.5 percent in 2010. Overall, because of productivity gains and rapid growth of the labour force due to the 'demographic dividend' which is currently peaking, an average economic growth of 7.5 percent such as attained during 2000-2008 is hardly sufficient to absorb new entrants on the labour market. Even with such a high growth rate, around one fourth of new entrants end up in the informal sector. The latter thus absorbs the labour surplus which agriculture and the formal sector are unable to employ. Several quick qualitative assessments of the impact of the crisis have been conducted in Asia and especially in Vietnam, based on a small number of interviews in some selected industries. They indeed put in evidence the impact of the crisis on the informal sector in terms of employment, number of hours worked and wages. But, due to the lack of data, no quantitative study of the impact of the crisis on the informal sector had been conducted until now. This is precisely the objective of this policy brief, based on the results of two rounds of Household Business and Informal Sector (HB&IS) surveys conducted on a statistically representative sample in Hanoi and HCMC in 2007 and 2009 within an international research project between Vietnam's General Statistics Office (GSO) and the French Institute. This brief can be usefully complemented by two companion papers: the first one presents the adjustment of the labour market and the informal economy nationwide the second one provides detailed results on the dynamics of the informal sector in the two main cities between 2007 and 2009.
Debt --- Developed Countries --- Developing Countries --- Economics --- Employment --- Employment and Unemployment --- Gdp --- Household Income --- Income Distribution --- Inequality --- Informal Sector --- Insurance --- International Labour Organization --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Mortality --- Poverty Impact Evaluation --- Poverty Monitoring & analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Productivity --- Profit Sharing --- Public officials --- Savings --- Social Protections and Labor --- Temporary Workers --- Transparency --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Workers --- Working Hours
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In 2007, the General Statistics Office (GSO) launched a joint research program with the French Institute of Research for Development (IRD), to measure and analyzes the informal sector in Vietnam. Two kinds of surveys were conducted in 2007: a national Labour Force Survey (LFS), which, in a first for Vietnam, classified labour by institutional sector, separating out the informal sector; two specific surveys, in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), which were grafted onto the LFS2007 to find out more about the characteristics of Household Businesses (HBs) in general and especially the informal sector. These surveys have been extensively analyzed, and the full results edited in a book. Two years later, this successful experience has been re-conducted, with the additional objectives to consolidate the methodology and to assess the impact of the global crisis on the labour market in general and the informal economy in particular. This paper presents the main findings (both methodological and analytical) of these two rounds of surveys as regards the informal sector in Hanoi and HCMC. In the context of the global crisis, it looks at the dynamics of the informal sector between 2007 and 2009. Taking advantage of this unique survey protocol, the first part investigates the macro dynamics comparing the two representative cross sections, while the second focuses on the micro dynamics drawn from the panel component. Transitions between formal and informal sector are explored. The third part aims at analyzing the perception of HBs' heads to assess the impact of the crisis. Then, the last section explores the changes as regards the problems faced by HBs, their interaction with the state and their outlook. In the conclusion, the author determines some of the implications of the findings in terms of economic policies. This report can be usefully complemented by two companion papers: the first one presents the adjustment of the labour market and the informal economy nationwide, based on the LFS2007 and 2009; the second one is a policy brief on the impact of the crisis on the informal sector in Hanoi and HCMC.
Agriculture --- Business Environment --- Capacity Building --- Collateral --- Debt --- Developing Countries --- Employment and Unemployment --- Gdp --- Health Education --- Household Income --- Income Distribution --- Informal Sector --- Insurance --- Labor Market --- Labor Markets --- Poverty Assessment --- Poverty Impact Evaluation --- Poverty Monitoring & analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Public Policy --- Savings --- Selection Bias --- Social Protections and Labor --- Technical Training --- Temporary Workers --- Transparency --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Workers --- Working Hours
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This edition of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional economic update shows that recovery in the region is below historical trends. Its economic prospects depend on global developments and continued strengths in emerging-market demand and oil price trends. Growth in the region is expected to average 4% in 2010, an increase of slightly less than 2 percentage points (pp) over growth in 2009 and weak compared to increases of 5.6pp in advanced economies and 4.5pp in developing nations. Only by 2011 and 2012 is MENA s growth expected to return to the average rates achieved prior to the economic and financial crisis. Recovery has been driven by the global economic rebound and, to varying degrees, by domestic stimulus. Industrial production, which in MENA is dominated by oil, has nearly reached its pre-crisis peak, largely due to the strong recovery in emerging markets, especially Asia. However, the upturn has weakened in recent months because the global slowdown has arrived sooner and is occurring faster than previously anticipated, and there are serious concerns about the sustainability of the global recovery. In response, MENA governments have continued to stimulate their economies in 2010, and even those that did not use any type of fiscal stimulus in 2009 have started implementing fiscal measures in 2010. The economic recovery in MENA has been much less vigorous than the recovery in countries that suffered sharp output contractions. The sustainability of the recovery in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies depends on developments in the rest of the world, and on the extent to which they affect oil markets. The outlook for the global economy and oil markets in the second half of 2010 remains uncertain, and a decline in oil prices cannot be ruled out.
Accounting --- Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Capital Flows --- Central Banks --- Commodity Prices --- Debt --- Debt Restructuring --- Developing Countries --- Economic Forecasting --- Economic Growth --- Employment and Unemployment --- Equity Markets --- Expenditures --- Exporters --- Financial Crisis --- Financial Institutions --- Fiscal Policy --- Free Trade Agreements --- Global Economy --- Income Tax --- Inflation --- Insurance --- Interest Rates --- Investment Climate --- Islamic Finance --- Labor Markets --- Letters of Credit --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Mortgages --- Price Volatility --- Private Investment --- Public Spending --- Recession --- Regulatory Reform --- Remittances --- Risk Aversion --- Securities --- Social Protections and Labor --- Tax Exemptions --- Telecommunications --- Trade Liberalization --- Uncertainty
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Indonesia has enjoyed a demographic dividend over the last forty years. The working population has been growing faster than the population of non-working dependents. This presents a major opportunity for economic growth and poverty reduction, provided that more jobs and better jobs are created to employ a workforce, which will grow by an estimated 20 million workers over the next ten years. Today's policy makers in Indonesia face a strategic challenge in identifying which policies and programs will spur the creation of good jobs while, at the same time, ensuring that workers are better protected from risks threatening their income security. Decisions about labor policies are particularly difficult because they can directly affect the well-being of workers, both inside and outside the formal jobs market, and the firms that are the main engines of job growth. Sound empirical data will help guide the debate around labor reform. The Indonesia jobs report, prepared by the World Bank in cooperation with the Government of Indonesia and local research partners, is the most comprehensive assessment of the country's labor market that has been carried out in the last decade. The report uses the most up-to-date data available to examine the performance of the labor market, changes in the supply of workers, and the effects of labor policies. The findings will help inform future policy directions and contribute towards evidence-based decision making. Stimulating the growth of better jobs requires a multi-pronged approach. This report recommends much needed reforms of labor policies and programs. Equally important, however, are reforms that accelerate job creation by improving infrastructure and the investment climate, alongside reforms that aim at improving the quality of education. Success will depend on working partnerships between the government, employer associations, labor unions and other civil society groups, with the support of Indonesia's think tanks and international development partners. This report helps reinvigorate policy dialogue about job creation and worker security. Learning from experiences and international best practices, Indonesia will be better prepared to navigate a course towards 'win-win' solutions that accelerate the creation of better jobs without sacrificing adequate protection for workers.
Child Labor --- Data Quality --- Developing Countries --- Economic Recovery --- Economics --- Employment --- Employment and Unemployment --- Employment Opportunities --- Employment Protection Legislation --- Employment Rates --- Gross Domestic Product --- Health Insurance --- Household Consumption --- Human Resources --- Informal Sector --- Investment In Education --- Job Creation --- Job Search Assistance --- Labor Costs --- Labor Disputes --- Labor Market --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Labor Policy --- Labor Relations --- Labor Standards --- Lifelong Learning --- Occupations --- On-the-Job Training --- Private Sector --- Productivity --- Public Works Projects --- Purchasing Power --- Purchasing Power Parity --- Quality of Education --- Secondary Education --- Severance Pay --- Sex Workers --- Skills Development and Labor Force Training --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployment --- Unskilled Workers --- Vocational Schools --- Workers --- Working Hours
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