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We consider how an elimination tournament's ability to select the most skilled competitor as the winner is shaped by past, current, and future competition. We present a two-stage model that yields the following main results: (1) a shadow effect — the weaker the expected future competitor, the greater the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage and (2) an effort spillover effect — previous effort reduces the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage. We test our theory predictions using data from high-stakes tournaments and betting markets. Empirical results suggest that shadow and spillover effects influence match outcomes.

Zonder onderwerpscode: economie

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