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Despite record economic growth for more than a decade, poverty has remained stubbornly high in Afghanistan, especially in the regions that suffered less from conflict. This paper aims to explain this paradox by combining a model of conflict intensity at the province level over period 2007-14 with a model of consumption at the household level in 2011. Provincial data show that higher levels of conflict were positively correlated with both a larger presence of troops (international and Afghan) and larger aid flows. Household data show that the negative impact of conflict on consumption was more than offset by the positive impact of aid and troops. According to the estimates, Afghan troops contributed more to poverty reduction than international troops, possibly because they spent more locally. The paper uses the estimated models to conduct an out-of-sample validation exercise, focusing on the transition initiated in 2014. The results should be interpreted with caution, as the quantitative models cannot account for strategic shifts in the insurgency and watershed political developments. But they suggest that the reduction in the number of international troops and declining foreign aid flows led to an increase in conflict intensity and a decline in consumption per capita, matching current trends.

Conflict --- Foreign Aid --- Poverty And Living Standards --- Troops

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India is uniquely placed to help reduce global poverty and boost prosperity. The country has the largest number of poor people in the world, as well are the largest number of people who have recently escaped poverty. There is an emerging middle class but the majority of people are still vulnerable to falling back into poverty. What lessons do the past two decades offer for what it will take for the country to sustain progress and bring about deeper changes? This synthesis brings together the key insights from extensive and in-depth research conducted by the World Bank on India's experience in reducing poverty and sharing prosperity over the last two decades. The beginning chapter of the synthesis offers an overview of the trends in living standards and mobility in India. This is followed by a chapter on the main drivers of poverty reduction. The third chapter sheds light on some of the gaps India needs to fill for sustaining mobility and spreading prosperity more widely.

Analysis of Economic Growth --- Economic Management --- Living Standards --- Mobility --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty Strategy, analysis and Monitoring --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Prosperity --- Social Protection and Risk Management

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This note describes the methodology used for estimating trends in poverty rates for Iraq using the 2012 Iraq household socio-economic survey and the 2014 continuous household survey; and presents the finding. The 2014 survey was designed to provide comparable and more frequent estimates of poverty, but fieldwork was disrupted in the second half of 2014 due to a deteriorating security situation. The methodology described in this note implements adjustments to weights and re-estimates the poverty line to establish poverty trends between the first half of 2012 and the first half of 2014 for all 18 governorates of Iraq; between 2012 and 2014 for these 13 governorates. The first set of estimates show that the pace of poverty reduction in Iraq was accelerating until the first half of 2014, while the second and third set of estimates quantify the adverse impact of the 2014 crisis on welfare in 13 governorates of Iraq.

Household Surveys --- Living Standards --- Poverty Line --- Poverty Lines --- Poverty Monitoring & analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty Strategy, analysis and Monitoring --- Social Protection and Risk Management

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In the last four years Myanmar's economy has seen a slight shift away from agriculture toward industry and services. This may mark the beginning of a structural transformation away from a rural, agricultural economy toward a more urban, industrial and service-based economy. Urbanization and job creation in urban areas have the potential to have a significant impact on labor and mobility patterns, especially for the landless and land-poor workers that account for a large part of the rural workforce. Domestic migration has been a critical component of the way many other countries in the region, including South Korea, China, and Vietnam, have managed to reduce poverty and support resilient livelihoods. However, pursuing these opportunities often entails significant risk for poor migrant households, who often have little capacity to absorb the shocks of failed migration attempts. Developing access to a knowledge base that enables them to manage risk more easily and make more informed choices around migration is critical to supporting their livelihoods. Migration flows can also have long-term social and economic consequences in rural areas as members of the labor force, particularly young people, move into cities and towns. This entails major public policy choices around areas such as spatial development, urbanization, service delivery, and poverty reduction. The government will need information on anticipated migrant flows in order to make the right policy choices and to plan for and provide services to people arriving from rural areas into urban settings. Within this evolving context, understanding the motivations, patterns, and dynamics of existing migration practices is critical in order to assist balanced and inclusive development in Myanmar by supporting safe and informed migration. The primary objective of this study is to collect detailed evidence and provide an objective assessment of how, and to what extent, migration within and from particular regions of Myanmar affects the livelihoods of rural households and the social and economic environment of villages. It seeks to understand how migration decisions take place, the key obstacles and risks faced by migrants, and the individual and household strategies that evolve to manage them. It also seeks to capture broader changes over time in sending communities, and how the departure and return of migrants affects social and economic dynamics at home and within the village. The study focuses on the Ayeyarwady Region and the Magway Region of Myanmar, which are home to large numbers of Myanmar's rural poor and are also close to two of the major centers of growth and job creation in the country, Yangon and Mandalay respectively. In these areas, the study applies a mixed-methods approach to the four key questions outlined.

Human Migrations & Resettlements --- Living Standards --- Migration --- Other Social Development --- Poverty Reduction --- Risk Management --- Rural Development --- Rural Policies and Institutions --- Social analysis --- Social analysis and Monitoring --- Social Dev/Gender/Inclusion --- Social Development --- Social Risk Management

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Moldova has experienced rapid economic growth in the past decade, which has been accompanied by reductions in poverty and good performance in shared prosperity. Nonetheless, Moldova remains one of the poorest countries in Europe and faces challenges in sustaining the progress. The challenges for progress include spatial and cross-group inequalities, particularly because of unequal access to assets, services and economic opportunities. Moreover, strengthening the persistently weak labor markets to boost employment, especially in the nonfarm sectors, is critical for sustaining progress toward the twin goals of reducing poverty and expanding shared prosperity and for addressing the problems associated with an aging population in a fiscally responsible manner. Accordingly, ensuring the viability of the pension system and improving social assistance are necessary areas of reform, particularly in a context of fiscal pressures, the aging population, and the great vulnerability of the poor to shocks. The Moldova poverty assessment 2016 includes three prongs of analysis: this report, which explores trends and the drivers of poverty and shared prosperity, and the accompanying analyses, 'a jobs diagnostic for Moldova' and 'structural transformation of Moldovan small-holder agriculture and its poverty and shared prosperity impacts.' The jobs diagnostic explores the main labor demand and supply challenges in Moldova in more detail, while the analysis of structural transformation focuses on the agricultural sector and whether it can become a driver of progress.

Agricultural Policy --- Agricultural Sector --- Agricultural Workers --- Employment Opportunities --- Farmland --- Food Security --- Health Insurance --- Household Consumption --- Household Income --- Household Size --- Human Capital --- Income Inequality --- Inequality --- Insurance --- Labor Markets --- Living Standards --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Migration --- Nutrition --- Population --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty Strategy, analysis and Monitoring --- Remittances --- Rural Poverty --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Sanitation --- Savings --- Social Protection and Risk Management --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployment --- Urban Areas