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Book
ISBN: 1484355113 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,
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Europe continues to enjoy a strong growth spurt. Growth has firmed up in many European economies and the forecast is for more of the same. Real GDP increased by 2.8 percent in 2017, up from 1.8 percent in 2016. The expansion is largely driven by domestic demand, with investment increasingly contributing. Credit growth has finally picked up, which is helping Europe’s banks to rebuild profitability. While leading indicators have recently begun to ease, they remain at high levels. Accordingly, the forecast is for growth to stay strong, reaching 2.6 percent in 2018 and 2.2 percent in 2019. Amid the good times, however, fiscal adjustment and structural reforms efforts are flagging.
Economic forecasting --- Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Labour --- income economics --- Wages --- Labor markets --- Unemployment --- Real wages --- Prices --- Labor market --- Labor economics --- United Kingdom
Book
ISBN: 148437374X Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,
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Labor market deregulation, intended to boost productivity and employment, is one plausible, yet little studied, driver of the decline in labor shares that took place across most advanced economies since the early 1990s. This paper assesses the impact of job protection deregulation in a sample of 26 advanced economies over the period 1970-2015, using a newly constructed dataset of major reforms to employment protection legislation for regular contracts. We apply the local projection method to estimate the dynamic response of the labor share to our reform events at both the country and the country-industry levels. For the latter, we employ a differences-in-differences identification strategy using two identifying assumptions grounded in theory—namely that job protection deregulation should have larger negative effects in industries characterized by (i) a higher “natural” propensity to adjust the workforce, and (ii) a lower elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. We find a statistically significant, economically large and robust negative effect of deregulation on the labor share. In particular, illustrative back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that job protection deregulation may have contributed about 15 percent to the average labor share decline in advanced economies. Together with existing evidence regarding the macroeconomic gains from job protection and other labor market reforms, our results also point to the need for policymakers to address efficiency-equity trade-offs when designing such reforms.
Business cycles. --- Economic stabilization. --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Adjustment, Economic --- Business stabilization --- Economic adjustment --- Stabilization, Economic --- Economic policy --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Business Fluctuations --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Unemployment Insurance --- Severance Pay --- Plant Closings --- Legal Monopolies and Regulation or Deregulation --- Institutions and Growth --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labor Contracts --- Labor Economics: General --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labour --- income economics --- Labor share --- Employment protection --- Labor markets --- Real wages --- Manpower policy --- Labor economics --- Labor market --- Economic theory --- United States
Book
ISBN: 148435804X Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,
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We may be on the cusp of a “second industrial revolution” based on advances in artificial intelligence and robotics. We analyze the implications for inequality and output, using a model with two assumptions: “robot” capital is distinct from traditional capital in its degree of substitutability with human labor; and only capitalists and skilled workers save. We analyze a range of variants that reflect widely different views of how automation may transform the labor market. Our main results are surprisingly robust: automation is good for growth and bad for equality; in the benchmark model real wages fall in the short run and eventually rise, but “eventually” can easily take generations.
Artificial intelligence. --- AI (Artificial intelligence) --- Artificial thinking --- Electronic brains --- Intellectronics --- Intelligence, Artificial --- Intelligent machines --- Machine intelligence --- Thinking, Artificial --- Bionics --- Cognitive science --- Digital computer simulation --- Electronic data processing --- Logic machines --- Machine theory --- Self-organizing systems --- Simulation methods --- Fifth generation computers --- Neural computers --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Automation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Labor Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Robotics --- Real wages --- Wage adjustments --- Wages --- Technology --- Labor economics --- United States
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