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All organizations must cope with future uncertainties. These uncertainties affect the strategic choices they make. They must commit scarce organizational resources to future outcomes which they have little assurance will come into being. Marcus explores how decision makers in the energy industry made choices in the face of such uncertainties, specifically examining two major uncertainties they confronted in the 2012-18 period - price volatility and climate change. Marcus tells the story of how different companies in the integrated oil and natural gas sector and in the motor vehicle sector responded to these uncertainties. In the face of these challenges, companies in the energy industry hedged their bets by staking out paradoxical or contrasting positions. On the one hand, they focused on capturing as much gain as they could from the world's current dependence on fossil fuels and on the other hand they made preparations for a future in which fossil fuels might not be the world's dominant energy source.
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"This book is set against the assumption that humans' unique feature is their infinite creativity, their ability to reflect on their deeds and to control their actions. These skills give rise to genuine uncertainty in society and hence in the economy. Here, the author sets out that uncertainty must take centre stage in all analyses of human decision making and therefore in economics. Uncertainty and Economics carefully defines a taxonomy of uncertainty and argues that it is only uncertainty in its most radical form which matters to economics. It shows that uncertainty is a powerful concept that not only helps to resolve long-standing economic puzzles but also unveils serious contradictions within current, popular economic approaches. It argues that neoclassical, real business cycle, or new-Keynesian economics must be understood as only one way to circumvent the analytical challenges posed by uncertainty. Instead, embracing uncertainty offers a new analytical paradigm which, in this book, is applied to standard economic topics such as institutions, money, the Lucas critique, fiscal policy and asset pricing. Through applying a concise uncertainty paradigm, the book sheds new light on human decision making at large. Offering policy conclusions and recommendations for further theoretical and applied research, it will be of great interest to postgraduate students, academics and policy makers"--
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Quatrième de couverture : "Qu'est-ce que la confiance ? La confiance, c'est se fier à quelqu'un et lui abandonner quelque chose de précieux de soi. C'est un pari et un risque : on peut toujours se tromper sur la personne et être l'objet d'une trahison. La confiance peut se perdre du jour au lendemain. La plupart d'entre nous oscillent entre moments de confiance et doutes, tant la vie apprend la défiance. Il y a mille raisons de douter : quand les pouvoirs traditionnels - politique, religieux, médiatique - vacillent ; quand les "complots" enflamment la Toile, malmenant notre rapport à la "vérité" ; face aux heurs et malheurs de notre époque ; lorsque nous sommes confontrés à des épreuves personnelles aussi - les deuils, les attentats, les crimes, le handicap... Chez certains, pourtant, le pire n'entame pas la confiance. En eux. En la vie."
Trust --- Psychoanalysis --- Uncertainty
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Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Therefore, many scholars and practitioners believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts. The author explains here how avoiding the challenge of assessing uncertainty undermines foreign policy analysis and decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he shows that foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international affairs, and shows that placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate.
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This eBook is a collection of articles from a Frontiers Research Topic. Frontiers Research Topics are very popular trademarks of the Frontiers Journals Series: they are collections of at least ten articles, all centered on a particular subject. With their unique mix of varied contributions from Original Research to Review Articles, Frontiers Research Topics unify the most influential researchers, the latest key findings and historical advances in a hot research area! Find out more on how to host your own Frontiers Research Topic or contribute to one as an author by contacting the Frontiers Editorial Office: frontiersin.org/about/contact
judgment --- decision-making --- uncertainty --- cognition --- psychology
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This eBook is a collection of articles from a Frontiers Research Topic. Frontiers Research Topics are very popular trademarks of the Frontiers Journals Series: they are collections of at least ten articles, all centered on a particular subject. With their unique mix of varied contributions from Original Research to Review Articles, Frontiers Research Topics unify the most influential researchers, the latest key findings and historical advances in a hot research area! Find out more on how to host your own Frontiers Research Topic or contribute to one as an author by contacting the Frontiers Editorial Office: frontiersin.org/about/contact
Science: general issues --- Psychology --- judgment --- decision-making --- uncertainty --- cognition --- psychology --- judgment --- decision-making --- uncertainty --- cognition --- psychology
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This eBook is a collection of articles from a Frontiers Research Topic. Frontiers Research Topics are very popular trademarks of the Frontiers Journals Series: they are collections of at least ten articles, all centered on a particular subject. With their unique mix of varied contributions from Original Research to Review Articles, Frontiers Research Topics unify the most influential researchers, the latest key findings and historical advances in a hot research area! Find out more on how to host your own Frontiers Research Topic or contribute to one as an author by contacting the Frontiers Editorial Office: frontiersin.org/about/contact
Science: general issues --- Psychology --- judgment --- decision-making --- uncertainty --- cognition --- psychology
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The measurement of values is fundamental in science and technology. Not only does this book include the importance of uncertainty, accuracy and precision of measurement, it also explains how laser technology has helped improve measurement and redefine standards. Masatoshi introduces the concept of the measurement uncertainty in both a qualitative and quantitate manner, whilst including key equations and formulae. It discusses the SI units, standards and the importance of using lasers for measurement in modern metrology, including the redefinition of SI units over time; which culminated in the agreement to redefine the Kilogram, which takes effect in May 2019. Real case studies are included, from the implications for measuring times at the Olympics, to the impacts in criminal investigations.
Measurement. --- Lasers. --- Measurement uncertainty (Statistics) --- Scientific standards. --- TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Measurement.
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