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Apres plus d'un demi-siecle d'absence, la guerre entre grandes puissances pourrait-elle signer son retour ? Alors que la degradation des relations entre les Etats-Unis, la Chine et la Russie a desormais ete actee, cet ouvrage entend s'interroger sur le risque du declenchement d'une guerre, globale ou regionale, entre eux d'ici à 2030. Certaines evolutions technologiques pourraient-elles venir remettre en cause la stabilite de l'equilibre nucleaire, garant de la paix depuis 1945 ? Les projets americains, notamment dans le domaine des defenses antimissile balistique, sont-ils sur le point de rendre caduc les dissuasions nucleaires chinoise et russe ? Se dirige-t-on en reaction vers une nouvelle course aux armements nucleaires ? Sur le plan conventionnel, comment Pekin et Moscou pourraient-ils chercher a contourner la superiorite militaire americaine ? Dans quelle mesure le developpement de leurs capacites dites de 'deni d'acces' renforce la probabilite d'un conflit arme au niveau regional ?

WAR--FORECASTING --- INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS --- USA--MILITARY POLICY --- CHINA--MILITARY POLICY --- RUSSIA (FEDERATION)--MILITARY POLICY --- NUCLEAR WEAPONS--GOVERNMENT POLICY

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This book examines the use of military force as a coercive tool by the United States, using lessons drawn from the post-Cold War era (1991-2018). The volume reveals that despite its status as sole superpower during the post-Cold War period, US efforts to coerce other states failed as often as they succeeded. In the coming decades, the United States will face states that are more capable and creative, willing to challenge its interests and able to take advantage of missteps and vulnerabilities. By using lessons derived from in-depth case studies and statistical analysis of an original dataset of more than 100 coercive incidents in the post-Cold War era, this book generates insight into how the US military can be used to achieve policy goals. Specifically, it provides guidance about the ways in which, and the conditions under which, the US armed forces can work in concert with economic and diplomatic elements of US power to create effective coercive strategies. This book will be of interest to students of US national security, US foreign policy, strategic studies and International Relations in general.

COERCIVE DIPLOMACY--USA --- USA--MILITARY POLICY --- USA--FOREIGN RELATIONS --- USE OF FORCE (INTERNATIONAL LAW) --- USA--ARMED FORCES--OPERATIONS OTHER THAN WAR --- National security --- United States --- Foreign relations. --- Military policy. --- Armed Forces --- Operations other than war. --- History, Military