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This paper introduces a global database that contains inflation series: (i) for a wide range of inflation measures (headline, food, energy, and core consumer price inflation; producer price inflation; and gross domestic product deflator changes); (ii) at multiple frequencies (monthly, quarterly and annual) for an extended period (1970-2021); and (iii) for a large number (up to 196) of countries. As it doubles the number of observations over the next-largest publicly available sources, the database constitutes a comprehensive, single source for inflation series. The paper illustrates the potential use of the database with three applications. First, it studies the evolution of inflation since 1970 and document the broad-based disinflation around the world over the past half-century, with global consumer price inflation down from a peak of roughly 17 percent in 1974 to 2.5 percent in 2020. Second, it examines the behavior of inflation during global recessions. Global inflation fell sharply (on average by 0.9 percentage points) in the year to the trough of global recessions and continued to decline even as recoveries got underway. In 2020, inflation declined less, and more briefly, than in any of the previous four global recessions over the past 50 years. Third, the paper analyzes the role of common factors in explaining movements in different measures of inflation. While, across all inflation measures, inflation synchronization has risen since the early 2000s, it has been much higher for inflation measures that involve a larger share of tradable goods.

Consumer Price Index --- Deflation --- Inflation --- Inflation Synchronization --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Prices

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The purpose of the mission was to improve the understanding of the conduct of monetary policy in an inflation targeting (IT) central bank. During the September visit, the mission provided capacity building through daily morning seminars, giving an introduction to modern theory of monetary policy in small-open economies, and by performing monetary policy analyses based on BM’s quarterly projection model (QPM) in the afternoons.

Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Prices --- Monetary policy frameworks --- Inflation targeting --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Exchange rates --- International agencies --- Mozambique, Republic of

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This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Inflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Fuel prices --- Consumer price indexes --- Consumer prices --- Oil prices --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Price indexes --- Nigeria

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On June 20, 2018, the Executive Board approved the largest stand-by arrangement in the Fund’s history, in support of Argentina’s 2018-21 economic program. After an augmentation in October 2018, access under the arrangement amounted to US$57 billion (1,227 percent of Argentina’s IMF quota). The program saw only four of the planned twelve reviews completed, and did not fulfil the objectives of restoring confidence in fiscal and external viability while fostering economic growth. The arrangement was canceled on July 24, 2020.

Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Inflation --- Public Finance --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Public finance & taxation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Prices --- Inflation targeting --- Public debt --- Exchange rates --- Fiscal consolidation --- Fiscal policy --- International agencies --- Debts, Public --- Argentina

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"The Money Illusion is George Mason University economist Scott Sumner's end-to-end case for an evolved, less discretionary approach to monetary policy, which he and his cohort have termed "market monetarism." The nominal use of "market" here is telling: Sumner argues that public confidence in central banking institutions like the Fed is central, and as critical as forecasting, to ensuring the health and stability of the economy. To achieve it, he makes a case that monetary policy should be indexed against a pre-set growth trajectory (in the form of a steadily increasing nominal GDP), not regulated ad-hoc through interpretations of short-term market changes. As Sumner tells it, the Fed is simultaneously responsible for the Great Recession and our best safeguard against having it happen again. Part of that is a responsibility to chart a course, and to do so with transparency".

Monetary policy --- Recessions --- Effect of monetary policy on --- monetary policy, great recession, market monetarism, economic crisis, housing markets, banking, nominal gdp, spending, economy, federal reserve, economics, nonfiction, politics, government, regulation, bailouts, 2008, macroeconomics, money, value, inflation, deflation, hyperinflation, as-ad model, depression, hume, rationality, price change, exchange rates, forecasts, employment, saving, wealth, investment, lending, banks. --- E-books