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Social security --- Wages --- Price indexes. --- Cost-of-living adjustments

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Consumer price indexes --- Prices --- Inflation (Finance) --- Statistical methods. --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Commercial products --- Commodity prices --- Justum pretium --- Price theory --- Consumption (Economics) --- Cost --- Costs, Industrial --- Money --- Cost and standard of living --- Supply and demand --- Value --- Wages --- Willingness to pay --- Consumer price index --- Cost of living indexes --- CPIs (Consumer price indexes) --- Retail price indexes --- Price indexes

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Consumer price indexes --- Cost and standard of living --- Rich people --- Poor --- Statistical methods.

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Large price changes in industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have caused erratic fluctuations in the U.S. headline inflation rate. This paper compares alternative approaches to filtering out the transitory effects of these industry price changes and measuring the underlying or core level of inflation over 2020-2021. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of core, the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices (XFE), has performed poorly: over most of 2020-21, it is almost as volatile as headline inflation. Measures of core that exclude a fixed set of additional industries, such as the Atlanta Fed’s sticky-price inflation rate, have been less volatile, but the least volatile have been measures that filter out large price changes in any industry, such as the Cleveland Fed’s median inflation rate and the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean inflation rate. These core measures have followed smooth paths, drifting down when the economy was weak in 2020 and then rising as the economy has rebounded. Overall, we find that the case for the Federal Reserve to move away from the traditional XFE measure of core has strengthened during 2020-21.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Inflation --- Diseases: Contagious --- Labor --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Health Behavior --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Labour --- income economics --- Prices --- Consumer price indexes --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Unemployment --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Price indexes --- Communicable diseases --- Canada

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This paper focuses on identifying potential asymmetric responses of non-commodity output growth in times of positive and negative commodity terms-of-trade shocks. Using a sample of 27 oil-exporting countries and a panel VAR method, the study finds: 1) the short-and medium-run response of real non-commodity GDP growth is larger for negative shocks than positive shocks; 2) this asymmetry is more pronounced in countries with weak pre-existing fundamentals–high levels of public debt and low levels of international reserves–which also serve to amplify the volatility of the response; 3) the output response to positive shocks is stronger following a sustained period of CTOT increases, while the impact of negative shocks on output are more damaging when they occur after a period of CTOT decline.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Investments: Commodities --- Investments: Energy --- Foreign Exchange --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Commodity Markets --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Energy: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Investment & securities --- Commodity prices --- Prices --- Commodities --- Commodity price indexes --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Oil --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Commercial products --- Price indexes --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Central African Republic