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This book is a collection of feature articles published in Risks in 2020. They were all written by experts in their respective fields. In these articles, they all develop and present new aspects and insights that can help us to understand and cope with the different and ever-changing aspects of risks. In some of the feature articles the probabilistic risk modeling is the central focus, whereas impact and innovation, in the context of financial economics and actuarial science, is somewhat retained and left for future research. In other articles it is the other way around. Ideas and perceptions in financial markets are the driving force of the research but they do not necessarily rely on innovation in the underlying risk models. Together, they are state-of-the-art, expert-led, up-to-date contributions, demonstrating what Risks is and what Risks has to offer: articles that focus on the central aspects of insurance and financial risk management, that detail progress and paths of further development in understanding and dealing with...risks. Asking the same type of questions (which risk allocation and mitigation should be provided, and why?) creates value from three different perspectives: the normative perspective of market regulator; the existential perspective of the financial institution; the phenomenological perspective of the individual consumer or policy holder.

Medicine --- medical services’ consumption --- lifestyle factors --- insurance plan --- structural equation model --- stock–bond correlation --- VIX --- economic policy uncertainty --- monetary policy uncertainty --- fiscal policy uncertainty --- agricultural commodity futures --- price discovery --- market reflexivity --- Hawkes process --- poisson autoregressive models --- contagion --- predictive monitoring --- information-based asset pricing --- Lévy processes --- gamma processes --- variance gamma processes --- Brownian bridges --- gamma bridges --- nonlinear filtering --- house price prediction --- real estate --- machine learning --- random forest --- Lévy process --- subordination --- option pricing --- risk sensitivity --- stochastic volatility --- Greeks --- time-change --- time series --- volatility --- probability-integral transform --- ARMA model --- copula

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This paper studies the growth of Chinese imports into the United States from autarky during 1950-1970 to about 15 percent of overall imports in 2008, taking advantage of the rich heterogeneity in trade policy and trade growth across products during this period. Central to the analysis is an accounting for the dynamics of trade, trade policy, and trade-policy expectations. The analysis isolates the lagged effects of past reforms and the current effects of uncertainty about future reforms. It builds a multi-industry, heterogeneous-firm model with a dynamic export participation decision to estimate a path of trade-policy expectations. The findings show that being granted Normal Trade Relations (NTR) status in 1980 was largely a surprise and that, in the early stages, this reform had a high probability of being reversed. The likelihood of reversal dropped considerably during the mid-1980s, and, despite China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, changed little throughout the late 1990s and early 2000s. Thus, although uncertainty depressed trade substantially following the 1980 liberalization, much of the trade growth that followed China's WTO accession was a delayed response to previous reforms rather than a response to declining uncertainty.

International Economics and Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Preferential Trade Agreements --- Trade and Services --- Trade Dynamics --- Trade Elasticity --- Trade Liberalization --- Trade Policy --- Trade Policy Uncertainty --- World Trade Organization --- WTO Accession

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This book is a collection of papers for the Special Issue “Quantitative Methods for Economics and Finance” of the journal Mathematics. This Special Issue reflects on the latest developments in different fields of economics and finance where mathematics plays a significant role. The book gathers 19 papers on topics such as volatility clusters and volatility dynamic, forecasting, stocks, indexes, cryptocurrencies and commodities, trade agreements, the relationship between volume and price, trading strategies, efficiency, regression, utility models, fraud prediction, or intertemporal choice.

Coins, banknotes, medals, seals (numismatics) --- academic cheating --- tax evasion --- informality --- pairs trading --- hurst exponent --- financial markets --- long memory --- co-movement --- cointegration --- risk --- delay --- decision-making process --- probability --- discount --- detection --- mean square error --- multicollinearity --- raise regression --- variance inflation factor --- derivation --- intertemporal choice --- decreasing impatience --- elasticity --- GARCH --- EGARCH --- VaR --- historical simulation approach --- peaks-over-threshold --- EVT --- student t-copula --- generalized Pareto distribution --- centered model --- noncentered model --- intercept --- essential multicollinearity --- nonessential multicollinearity --- commodity prices --- futures prices --- number of factors --- eigenvalues --- volatility cluster --- Hurst exponent --- FD4 approach --- volatility series --- probability of volatility cluster --- S&amp --- P500 --- Bitcoin --- Ethereum --- Ripple --- bitcoin --- deep learning --- deep recurrent convolutional neural networks --- forecasting --- asset pricing --- financial distress prediction --- unconstrained distributed lag model --- multiple periods --- Chinese listed companies --- cash flow management --- corporate prudential risk --- the financial accelerator --- financial distress --- induced risk aversion --- liquidity constraints --- liquidity risk --- macroeconomic propagation --- multiperiod financial management --- non-linear macroeconomic modelling --- Tobin’s q --- precautionary savings --- pharmaceutical industry --- scale economies --- profitability --- biotechnological firms --- non-parametric efficiency --- productivity --- DEA --- dispersion trading --- option arbitrage --- volatility trading --- correlation risk premium --- econometrics --- computational finance --- ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) --- autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) --- support vector regression (SVR) --- genetic algorithm (GA) --- energy consumption --- cryptocurrency --- gold --- P 500 --- DCC --- copula --- copulas --- Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation --- local optima vs. local minima --- SRA approach --- foreign direct investment --- bilateral investment treaties --- regional trade agreements --- structural gravity model --- policy uncertainty --- stock prices --- dynamically simulated autoregressive distributed lag (DYS-ARDL) --- threshold regression --- United States

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This book is a collection of papers for the Special Issue “Quantitative Methods for Economics and Finance” of the journal Mathematics. This Special Issue reflects on the latest developments in different fields of economics and finance where mathematics plays a significant role. The book gathers 19 papers on topics such as volatility clusters and volatility dynamic, forecasting, stocks, indexes, cryptocurrencies and commodities, trade agreements, the relationship between volume and price, trading strategies, efficiency, regression, utility models, fraud prediction, or intertemporal choice.

academic cheating --- tax evasion --- informality --- pairs trading --- hurst exponent --- financial markets --- long memory --- co-movement --- cointegration --- risk --- delay --- decision-making process --- probability --- discount --- detection --- mean square error --- multicollinearity --- raise regression --- variance inflation factor --- derivation --- intertemporal choice --- decreasing impatience --- elasticity --- GARCH --- EGARCH --- VaR --- historical simulation approach --- peaks-over-threshold --- EVT --- student t-copula --- generalized Pareto distribution --- centered model --- noncentered model --- intercept --- essential multicollinearity --- nonessential multicollinearity --- commodity prices --- futures prices --- number of factors --- eigenvalues --- volatility cluster --- Hurst exponent --- FD4 approach --- volatility series --- probability of volatility cluster --- S&amp --- P500 --- Bitcoin --- Ethereum --- Ripple --- bitcoin --- deep learning --- deep recurrent convolutional neural networks --- forecasting --- asset pricing --- financial distress prediction --- unconstrained distributed lag model --- multiple periods --- Chinese listed companies --- cash flow management --- corporate prudential risk --- the financial accelerator --- financial distress --- induced risk aversion --- liquidity constraints --- liquidity risk --- macroeconomic propagation --- multiperiod financial management --- non-linear macroeconomic modelling --- Tobin’s q --- precautionary savings --- pharmaceutical industry --- scale economies --- profitability --- biotechnological firms --- non-parametric efficiency --- productivity --- DEA --- dispersion trading --- option arbitrage --- volatility trading --- correlation risk premium --- econometrics --- computational finance --- ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) --- autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) --- support vector regression (SVR) --- genetic algorithm (GA) --- energy consumption --- cryptocurrency --- gold --- P 500 --- DCC --- copula --- copulas --- Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation --- local optima vs. local minima --- SRA approach --- foreign direct investment --- bilateral investment treaties --- regional trade agreements --- structural gravity model --- policy uncertainty --- stock prices --- dynamically simulated autoregressive distributed lag (DYS-ARDL) --- threshold regression --- United States