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Our ‘Tale of Two Decades’ is largely a tale of ‘two regimes’: one—stretching slightly beyond the ECB’s mid-point—marked by decent growth in real incomes and a distribution of shocks to inflation almost universally to the upside; and the second—starting well into the post-Lehman period—characterized by endemic instability and crisis, with the distribution of shocks eventually switching from inflationary to continuously disinflationary. We show how the most defining feature of the ECB’s monetary policy framework, its characteristic definition of price stability with a hard 2 per cent ceiling, functioned as a key shock absorber in the relatively high-inflation years prior to the crisis, but offered a softer defence in the face of the disinflationary forces that hit the euro area in its aftermath. The imperative to halt persistent disinflation in the post-crisis era therefore called for a radical, unprecedented policy response, comprising negative policy rates, enhanced forms of forward guidance, a large asset purchase programme and targeted long-term loans to banks. We study the multidimensional interactions among these four instruments and quantify their impact on inflation and the macroeconomy.

Monetary policy. --- Financial crises. --- European Central Bank. --- Europese Centrale Bank --- inflatie --- deflatie --- monetair beleid --- política monetaria --- politique monétaire --- νομισματική πολιτική --- politică monetară --- měnová politika --- menová politika --- rahapolitiikka --- pinigų politika --- Geldpolitik --- política monetária --- monetary policy --- monetārā politika --- rahapoliitika --- валутна политика --- penningpolitik --- monetarna politika --- монетарна политика --- polityka walutowa --- monetær politik --- politica monetaria --- politika monetarja --- monetáris politika --- politikë monetare --- currency reform --- monetární politika --- monetaire stabiliteit --- menová situácia --- νομισματική μεταρρύθμιση --- pinigų reforma --- situazione monetaria --- naudas politika --- monetáris helyzet --- měnová situace --- menová reforma --- currency situation --- situação monetária --- situación monetaria --- money policy --- valuuttatilanne --- situatë valutore --- reformă monetară --- penningreform --- νομισματική κατάσταση --- Währungspolitik --- Währungslage --- riforma monetaria --- monetáris reform --- monetarinė politika --- peňažná politika --- reformë valutore --- reforma monetária --- valuutareform --- valuutasituatsioon --- situație monetară --- novčarska politika --- pénzpolitika --- situation monétaire --- pénzreform --- rahareform --- réforme monétaire --- novčana politika --- valūtas reforma --- Geld- und Kreditpolitik --- reforma monetaria --- stabilità monetaria --- монетарна реформа --- Währungsreform --- monetaire situatie --- politika e parasë --- monetaarpoliitika --- monetaire hervorming --- piniginė padėtis --- valuuttauudistus --- měnová reforma --- monetär situation --- deflazzjoni --- deflácia --- дефлация --- дефлација --- díbhoilsciú --- deflacija --- déflation --- deflace --- deflazione --- deflație --- Deflation --- deflation --- deflacion --- αντιπληθωρισμός --- deflaatio --- deflācija --- deflação --- defliacija --- deflación --- defláció --- deflatsioon --- deflacja --- deflációs politika --- deflationistische Politik --- politica deflazionistica --- deflationspolitik --- дефлациска политика --- politique déflationniste --- αντιπληθωριστική πολιτική --- política deflacionista --- defliacinė politika --- gap deflazionistico --- politică deflaționistă --- deflācijas politika --- дефлациски тенденции --- deflaatiopolitiikka --- recessione --- deflatsioonipoliitika --- stagnazione --- politikë deflacioniste --- deflační politika --- deflatoire politiek --- deflačná politika --- deflationary policy --- инфлација --- inflacion --- inflācija --- boilsciú --- inflație --- πληθωρισμός --- inflación --- infláció --- инфлация --- inflace --- inflation --- inflacija --- inflazione --- inflaatio --- inflácia --- inflatsioon --- Inflation --- infliacija --- inflação --- inflacja --- inflazzjoni --- stopa inflacije --- stagflacija --- estagflação --- taux d'inflation --- míra inflace --- stagflācija --- stagflatie --- inflācijas līmenis --- tasso d'inflazione --- boilsciú praghsanna --- stagflace --- norma e inflacionit --- rate of inflation --- stagfliacija --- lotta all'inflazione --- stagnace spojená s inflací --- taxa de inflação --- inflationsbekämpning --- inflationstakt --- стагфлација --- lucha contra la inflación --- пад на вредноста на валутата --- stagflatsioon --- võitlus inflatsiooniga --- antiinflacijska politika --- inflatiebestrijding --- infláció elleni küzdelem --- fight against inflation --- lutte contre l'inflation --- estanflación --- inflationsbekæmpelse --- stagflácia --- stagflazione --- kova su infliacija --- lufta kundër inflacionit --- infliacijos dydis --- staflacion --- inflazione galoppante --- stagfláció --- inflationsrate --- inflatsioonimäär --- politica antinflazionistica --- Stagflation --- znehodnocení peněz --- tasa de inflación --- раст на цените --- boj proti inflaci --- inflatiepeil --- επίπεδο πληθωρισμού --- Bekämpfung der Inflation --- stagflation --- cīņa pret inflāciju --- lupta împotriva inflației --- inflaation torjuminen --- rata inflației --- inflationstryck --- стапка на инфлација --- καταπολέμηση του πληθωρισμού --- miera inflácie --- inflazione da domanda --- stagflaatio --- Inflationsrate --- στασιμοπληθωρισμός --- inflációs ráta --- boj proti inflácii --- хиперинфлација --- luta contra a inflação --- stagflație --- Banco Central Europeu --- Европска централна банка --- European Central Bank --- Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα --- Europos Centrinis Bankas --- il-Bank Ċentrali Ewropew --- Európska centrálna banka --- Banca centrale europea --- Den Europæiske Centralbank --- An Banc Ceannais Eorpach --- Banque centrale européenne --- Banka Qendrore Europiane --- Europäische Zentralbank --- Europska središnja banka --- Европейска централна банка --- Europejski Bank Centralny --- Euroopa Keskpank --- Eiropas Centrālā banka --- Európai Központi Bank --- Evropska centralna banka --- Banco Central Europeo --- Banca Centrală Europeană --- Europeiska centralbanken --- Euroopan keskuspankki --- Evropská centrální banka --- EZB --- EKT --- ECB --- Evropská ústřední banka --- EBC --- EKP --- EKB --- ústřední banka --- BĊE --- BQE --- ЕЦБ --- Europos centrinis bankas --- BCE --- beartas airgeadaíochta --- finances internationales --- internationale finanser --- διεθνή δημοσιονομικά --- finanças internacionais --- međunarodne financije --- finanse międzynarodowe --- tarptautiniai finansai --- меѓународни финансии --- finanze internazionali --- међународне финансије --- kansainvälinen rahoitustoimi --- internationale financiën --- finanzas internacionales --- международни финанси --- finanzi internazzjonali --- financa ndërkombëtare --- Internationale Finanzierung --- internationella finanser --- mezinárodní finance --- medzinárodné financie --- finanțe internaționale --- international finance --- starptautiskās finanses --- mednarodne finance --- nemzetközi pénzügyek --- rahvusvaheline rahandus --- кредитна линија --- airgeadais idirnáisiúnta --- Internationale Finanzierung