TY - BOOK ID - 11265548 TI - The global impact of the systemic economies and MENA business cycles AU - Cashin, Paul AU - Mohaddes, Kamiar AU - Raissi, Mehdi AU - International Monetary Fund. PY - 2012 SN - 1475551916 1475581645 147553230X 1475596669 9781475551914 9781475581645 9781475596663 9781475581645 9781475596663 PB - [Washington, D.C.] International Monetary Fund DB - UniCat KW - Business & Economics KW - Economic Theory KW - Business cycles KW - Econometric models. KW - Economic cycles KW - Economic fluctuations KW - Cycles KW - Econometric models KW - E-books KW - Investments: Energy KW - Econometrics KW - Foreign Exchange KW - Macroeconomics KW - Industries: Energy KW - Time-Series Models KW - Dynamic Quantile Regressions KW - Dynamic Treatment Effect Models KW - Diffusion Processes KW - State Space Models KW - General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation KW - Business Fluctuations KW - International Business Cycles KW - Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East KW - Energy: Demand and Supply KW - Prices KW - Energy: General KW - Macroeconomics: Production KW - Investment & securities KW - Econometrics & economic statistics KW - Currency KW - Foreign exchange KW - Petroleum, oil & gas industries KW - Oil KW - Oil prices KW - Vector autoregression KW - Real effective exchange rates KW - Oil production KW - Commodities KW - Econometric analysis KW - Production KW - Petroleum industry and trade KW - United States UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:11265548 AB - This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications. ER -