TY - BOOK ID - 80734137 TI - Guinea : Fourth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Financing Assurances Review. PY - 2014 SN - 9781498399715 1498399711 1498388973 1498315879 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Papua New Guinea KW - Giniyah ha-Ḥadashah KW - Independen Stet bilong Papua Niugini KW - Independent State of Papua New Guinea KW - Papouasie-Nouvelle-Guinée KW - Papua-Neuguinea KW - Papua Niu Gini KW - Papua Niugini KW - Papua Nova Gvineja KW - Papua Nugini KW - Papua Nuova Guinea KW - Papua Nya Guinea KW - Papua Nyū Ginia KW - Papua-Uusi-Guinea KW - Papuʼah Giniyah ha-Ḥadashah KW - PNG (Papua New Guinea) KW - Territory of Papua and New Guinea KW - パプアニューギニア KW - New Guinea (Territory) KW - Papua KW - Economic conditions. KW - Social conditions. KW - E-books KW - Banks and Banking KW - Exports and Imports KW - Financial Risk Management KW - Public Finance KW - Natural Resource Extraction KW - Macroeconomics KW - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General KW - Banks KW - Depository Institutions KW - Micro Finance Institutions KW - Mortgages KW - International Lending and Debt Problems KW - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction: General KW - Debt KW - Debt Management KW - Sovereign Debt KW - Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation KW - Public finance & taxation KW - Banking KW - International economics KW - Extractive industries KW - Financial services law & regulation KW - Public financial management (PFM) KW - Mining sector KW - Debt relief KW - Bank supervision KW - Economic sectors KW - Financial regulation and supervision KW - National accounts KW - Budget planning and preparation KW - Finance, Public KW - Debts, External KW - Banks and banking KW - Mineral industries KW - State supervision KW - National income KW - Guinea UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:80734137 AB - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Economic activity remained weak in early 2014. Activity was impacted by an outbreak of the Ebola virus since late 2013, but lagging structural reforms, energy shortages, and political uncertainty may also be at play. Economic growth is estimated to have been 2.3 percent in 2013, and is projected at 3.5 percent in 2014, supported by higher public investment and assuming a gradual start-up of new mining sector investment. Inflation fell to below 10 percent year-on-year in May 2014, international reserves covered 3.6 months of imports by end-2013, and the exchange rate has remained stable. Performance under the ECF-supported program remains broadly satisfactory, although progress with structural reform has been slow. All performance criteria for end-2013 were met as were all but one (the floor on priority sector spending) of the program’s indicative targets for March 2014. However, the structural benchmarks for the second half of 2013 and early-2014 could not be completed as planned. The policy discussions focused on (i) the growth outlook for 2014; (ii) a supplementary budget for 2014 in light of a shortfall in revenues and new spending needs; (iii) progress in implementing structural reforms; and (iv) debt management. Risks to the program largely stem from domestic factors. New cases of Ebola have surged and spread more widely in recent months, which could affect growth in the second half of the year. The recent approval of the investment framework for the large Simandou iron ore project augurs well for a gradual pick-up in mining activity. However, renewed political tensions and uncertainty in the run-up to presidential elections, due in the second half of 2015, could risk delaying new investment. Staff supports completing the fourth review under the ECF arrangement and the financing assurances review. Completion of the review will result in a disbursement of an amount equivalent to SDR 18.36 million under the ECF arrangement. ER -