TY - BOOK ID - 84540307 TI - In Search of Coincident and Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Argentina PY - 2001 SN - 1462358136 145271598X 1281606413 9786613787118 1451892446 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Econometrics KW - Macroeconomics KW - Statistics KW - Forecasting KW - Forecasting and Other Model Applications KW - Macroeconomics: Production KW - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications KW - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) KW - General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) KW - Econometric Modeling: General KW - Economic growth KW - Econometrics & economic statistics KW - Economic Forecasting KW - Cyclical indicators KW - Economic and financial statistics KW - Economic forecasting KW - Business cycles KW - Econometric models KW - Econometric analysis KW - Economic statistics KW - Argentina UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:84540307 AB - Time series on economic activity in developing countries, in particular real GDP, are reported with important lags. Therefore, it is useful to construct indicators that coincide or lead the actual direction and level of economic activity. A general methodology to construct these indicators is proposed and adapted for Argentina. Three coincident indicators could be constructed, but no reliable leading indicator could be found. From an econometric standpoint, the coincident indicators produce satisfactory point estimates of real GDP. The series that enter the indicator are broadly consistent with what many economists believe is the main source of real GDP fluctuations in Argentina: shocks to the capital account of the balance of payments. This enhances the confidence in the econometric results. ER -