TY - BOOK ID - 84540754 TI - Currency and Banking Crises : The Early Warnings of Distress PY - 1999 SN - 1462393241 1452731012 1282020102 1451904290 9786613796196 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Banks and Banking KW - Financial Risk Management KW - Foreign Exchange KW - Macroeconomics KW - Financial Crises KW - Banks KW - Depository Institutions KW - Micro Finance Institutions KW - Mortgages KW - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) KW - Economic & financial crises & disasters KW - Banking KW - Currency KW - Foreign exchange KW - Economic growth KW - Currency crises KW - Banking crises KW - Financial crises KW - Real exchange rates KW - Cyclical indicators KW - Banks and banking KW - Business cycles KW - Thailand UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:84540754 AB - The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample. ER -