TY - BOOK ID - 85594596 TI - Ecuador : Selected Issues Paper and Analytical Notes. PY - 2019 SN - 1498303722 1498303684 PB - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, DB - UniCat KW - Ecuador KW - Economic conditions. KW - Banks and Banking KW - Financial Risk Management KW - Macroeconomics KW - Money and Monetary Policy KW - Public Finance KW - Energy: Demand and Supply KW - Prices KW - Debt KW - Debt Management KW - Sovereign Debt KW - Monetary Systems KW - Standards KW - Regimes KW - Government and the Monetary System KW - Payment Systems KW - Fiscal Policy KW - Banks KW - Depository Institutions KW - Micro Finance Institutions KW - Mortgages KW - Monetary economics KW - Banking KW - Finance KW - Public finance & taxation KW - Oil prices KW - Currencies KW - Debt limits KW - Fiscal stance KW - Money KW - Asset and liability management KW - Fiscal policy KW - Public debt KW - Banks and banking KW - Debts, Public UR - https://www.unicat.be/uniCat?func=search&query=sysid:85594596 AB - This Selected Issues paper estimates Ecuador’s potential growth in the range of 1 3/4 to 3 percent. The lower estimate corresponds to an extrapolation of recent trends while the higher estimate could be achievable through the implementation of a reform agenda that addresses fiscal and competitiveness challenges of Ecuador. The paper also develops models to nowcast and forecast GDP to improve the accuracy of growth projections. The oil sector remains an important driver of economic activity; however, it is not as important as it once was. A simple growth accounting exercise is used to decompose Ecuador’s growth between production factors accumulation; capital and labor, and total factor productivity. The study shows that low total factor productivity is the reason behind Ecuador’s recent economic decline and has been a negative contributor to long-term growth. The paper also explores different vector autoregression models to identify the best one to forecast real GDP in Ecuador. ER -