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Book
Fintech Borrowers : Lax-Screening or Cream-Skimming?
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

We study the personal credit market using unique individual-level data covering fintech and traditional lenders. We show that fintech lenders acquire market share by first lending to higher-risk borrowers and then to safer borrowers, and mainly rely on hard information to make credit decisions. Fintech borrowers are significantly more likely to default than neighbor individuals with the same characteristics borrowing from traditional financial institutions. Furthermore, they tend to experience only a short- lived reduction in the cost of credit, because their indebtedness increases more than non-fintech borrowers a few months after loan origination. However, fintech lenders' pricing strategies are likely to take this into account.

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Book
The Unintended Consequences of the Zero Lower Bound Policy
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2016 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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We study the impact of the zero lower bound interest rate policy on the industrial organization of the U.S. money fund industry. We find that in response to policies that maintain low interest rates, money funds: change their product offerings by investing in riskier asset classes; are more likely to exit the market; and reduce the fees they charge their investors. The consequence of fund closures resulting from interest rate policy is the relocation of resources in affected fund families and in the asset management industry in general, as well as decline in capital of issuers borrowing from money funds.

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Book
Invisible Primes : Fintech Lending with Alternative Data
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2022 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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We exploit anonymized administrative data provided by a major fintech platform to investigate whether using alternative data to assess borrowers' creditworthiness results in broader credit access. Comparing actual outcomes of the fintech platform's model to counterfactual outcomes based on a "traditional model" used for regulatory reporting purposes, we find that the latter would result in a 70% higher probability of being rejected and higher interest rates for those approved. The borrowers most positively affected are the "invisible primes"--borrowers with low credit scores and short credit histories, but also a low propensity to default. We show that funding loans to these borrowers leads to better economic outcomes for the borrowers and higher returns for the fintech platform.

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Book
The Credit Supply Channel of Monetary Policy Tightening and its Distributional Impacts
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2023 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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This paper studies how tightening monetary policy transmits to the economy through the mortgage market and sheds new light on the distributional consequences at both the individual and regional levels. We find that credit supply factors, specifically restrictions on the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio, account for the majority of the decline in mortgages. These effects are even more pronounced for young and middle-income borrowers who find themselves excluded from the credit market. Also, regions with historically high DTI ratios exhibited greater reductions in mortgage originations, house prices, and consumption.

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Book
The Relevance of Broker Networks for Information Diffusion in the Stock Market
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2017 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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This paper shows that the network of relationships between brokers and institutional investors shapes the information diffusion in the stock market. We exploit trade-level data to show that central brokers gather information by executing informed trades, which is then leaked to their best clients. We show that after large informed trades, a significantly higher volume of other institutional investors execute similar trades through the same broker, allowing them to capture higher returns in the first few days after the initial trade. In contrast, we find that when the informed asset manager is affiliated with the broker, such imitation does not occur. Similarly, we show that the clients of the broker employed by activist investors to execute their trades tend to buy the same stocks just before the filing of the 13D. This evidence also suggests that an important source of alpha for fund managers is the access to better connections rather than superior skill.

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Book
Stock Market Returns and Consumption
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2018 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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This paper employs Swedish data on households' stock holdings to investigate how consumption responds to changes in stock market returns. We instrument the actual capital gains and dividend payments with past portfolio weights. Unrealized capital gains lead to a marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of 23% for the bottom 50% of the wealth distribution and about 3% for the top 30% of the wealth distribution. Households' consumption is significantly more responsive to dividend payouts across all parts of the wealth distribution. Our findings are consistent with households treating capital gains and dividends as separate sources of income.

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Book
The Value of Trading Relationships in Turbulent Times
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2016 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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This paper investigates the ways in which the network of relationships between dealers shapes their trading behavior in the corporate bond market. They charge lower spreads to dealers with whom they have the strongest ties, and this effect is all the more pronounced at times of market turmoil. Moreover, highly connected and systemically important dealers exploit their connections at the expense of peripheral dealers as well as clients, charging higher markups than to other core dealers, especially during periods of uncertainty. We show that following the collapse of a flagship dealer in 2008, trading chains lengthened by almost 20 percent and that the increase was even greater for the institutions that had the closest ties with the defaulted dealer. Finally, we find evidence that dealers drastically reduced their inventory during the financial crisis. These results can help inform the debate on the risks posed by the interconnectedness of the financial system, showing how this could be a source of market fragility and illiquidity.

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Book
How Quantitative Easing Works : Evidence on the Refinancing Channel
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2016 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Despite massive large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) by central banks around the world since the global financial crisis, there is a lack of empirical evidence on whether and how these programs affect the real economy. Using rich borrower-linked mortgage-market data, we document that there is a "flypaper effect" of LSAPs, where the transmission of unconventional monetary policy to interest rates and (more importantly) origination volumes depends crucially on the assets purchased and degree of segmentation in the market. For example, QE1, which involved significant purchases of GSE-guaranteed mortgages, increased GSE-eligible mortgage originations significantly more than the origination of GSE-ineligible mortgages. In contrast, QE2's focus on purchasing Treasuries did not have such differential effects. We find that the Fed's purchase of MBS (rather than exclusively Treasuries) during QE1 resulted in an additional $600 billion of refinancing, substantially reducing interest payments for refinancing households, leading to a boom in equity extraction, and increasing consumption by an additional $76 billion. This de facto allocation of credit across mortgage market segments, combined with sharp bunching around GSE eligibility cutoffs, establishes an important complementarity between monetary policy and macroprudential housing policy. Our counterfactual simulations estimate that relaxing GSE eligibility requirements would have significantly increased refinancing activity in response to QE1, including a 20% increase in equity extraction by households. Overall, our results imply that central banks could most effectively provide unconventional monetary stimulus by supporting the origination of debt that would not be originated otherwise.

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Book
The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2020 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

Using new employer-employee matched data, this paper investigates the impact of uncertainty, as measured by idiosyncratic stock market volatility, on individual outcomes. We find that firms provide at best partial insurance to their workers. An increase in firm-level uncertainty is associated with a decline in total compensation, especially in variable pay. In turn, individuals reduce their durable goods consumption in response to these uncertainty shocks. These shocks also lead to greater financial fragility among lower-income earners. We also construct a new county-level uncertainty shock and find that local uncertainty shocks reduce county level durable consumption.

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Book
Second Chance : Life without Student Debt
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2019 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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We exploit an episode of plausibly-random debt discharge, due to the inability of National Collegiate to prove chain of title, to examine the effects of student debt relief on individual credit and labor market outcomes. We find that borrowers experiencing this debt relief shock reduce their indebtedness by 11%, and number of other delinquent accounts by 24%. After the discharge, we see increases in the borrowers' geographical mobility, probability of changing jobs, and ultimately their income, which increases by about $3000 over a three year period. Although we cannot quantify its costs, these findings speak to the benefits of loan forgiveness in reducing the consequences of debt overhang.

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