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Correlation does not imply causation.' This mantra was invoked by scientists for decades in order to avoid taking positions as to whether one thing caused another, such as smoking and cancer and carbon dioxide and global warming. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by world-renowned computer scientist Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed cause and effect on a firm scientific basis. Now, Pearl and science journalist Dana Mackenzie explain causal thinking to general readers for the first time, showing how it allows us to explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It is the essence of human and artificial intelligence. And just as Pearl's discoveries have enabled machines to think better, The Book of Why explains how we can think better
Causation --- Causation.
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Can drinking coffee help people live longer? What makes a stock's price go up? Why did you get the flu? Causal questions like these arise on a regular basis, but most people likely have not thought deeply about how to answer them. This book helps you think about causality in a structured way: What is a cause, what are causes good for, and what is compelling evidence of causality? Author Samantha Kleinberg shows you how to develop a set of tools for thinking more critically about causes. You'll learn how to question claims, identify causes, make decisions based on causal information, and verify causes through further tests. Whether it's figuring out what data you need, or understanding that the way you collect and prepare data affects the conclusions you can draw from it, Why will help you sharpen your causal inference skills. -- Provided by publisher.
Causation. --- Causation.
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Causation. --- Causation.
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Causation. --- Reason.
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The book explores the problem of causal inference when a sufficient number of comparative cases cannot be found, which would permit the application of frequency based models formulated in terms of explanatory causal generalisations. The technique advocated develops the idea of Bayesian Narratives deriving evidence for singular causal connections from ethnographically elicited, indicative, counter factual and counter potential statements. Bayesian Narratives assemble multiple causal inferences into a directed a-cyclic di-graph. Comparative Narratives allow that similar digraphs may be compared.
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