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The December issue of the Research Bulletin looks at “Seven Questions about Climate Change” (Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto). The Research Summaries review “Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth” (Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata, and Frederik Toscani) and “Malaysia: Achieving High-Income Status through Resilience and Inclusive Growth” (Alex Mourmouras and Naimh Sheridan). The issue also includes regular updates on new IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, IMF books, and the IMF Economic Review.

Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Natural Resources --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics --- Environmental and Ecological Economics: General --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General --- Energy: General --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Climate change --- Environmental management --- Investment & securities --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Natural resources --- Non-renewable resources --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Oil --- Environment --- Commodities --- Climatic changes --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Greenhouse gases --- Saving and investment --- Malaysia

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World Bank economists expect GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to continueat a modest pace of 1.5 percent in 2019, slightly down from 1.6 percent in 2018. The declme reflectsa contraction in one large economy, which more than offsets growth in other countries. In the mediumterm, the World Bank expects real GDP in the MENA to grow at 3.4 percent and 2.7 percent in 2020and 2021, respectively. The expected upswing is partially driven by ongoing policy reforms, as wellas reconstruction efforts in some countries. However, MENA's modest recovery will be insufficientto change its historically low growth in per capita GDP. External factors are unlikely to pull the regionout of its low-growth equilibrium. In addition, many countries in the region have persistent currentaccount deficits. A recent deterioration in external balances across MENA constrained the region'sability to finance these deficits. Although the region has a low risk of experiencing sudden reversalsin capital inflows in the short run, structural reforms capable of raising aggregate labor productivityare urgently needed to gradually reduce external imbalances. The report concludes by providingexamples of reforms in fiscal policies, trade-related policies, social protection and labor markets, andstate-owned enterprises (SOEs) in network industries.

Current Account --- Economic Growth --- External Balances --- Fiscal Balance --- Oil Exporters --- Oil Importers --- Oil Prices --- Productivity

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This paper examines growth spillovers between emerging markets and advanced economies. The empirical results, based on a two-bloc setup and cover 1991 to 2015, are twofold. First, the paper shows that the size of the spillovers running from emerging markets to advanced economies is about a fifth of those running from advanced economies to emerging markets. Second, the results point to spillovers from emerging markets to advanced economies having increased over the second half of the sample period. The paper presents suggestive evidence that the (evolving) structure of interdependencies plays an important role in explaining the existence of "asymmetrical spillovers" between these similar size blocs.

Business cycles. --- Labor market.

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This paper explores the effect of oil price fluctuations on the stock returns of U.S. oil firms using an identification strategy through heteroskedasticity, exploiting the 2020 oil price crash. The results are twofold. First, a decline in oil prices significantly reduces oil firms' stock returns. On average, a 1 percent decline in oil prices leads to a 0.44 percent decline in stock prices. Second, firm debt appears irrelevant in mediating the effect of oil prices on oil firms' stock returns. Moreover, the muted role of debt was not likely caused by the liquidity backstop provided by the Federal Reserve.

Corporate debt.

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Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down by 0.8 percentage points from the April 2019 projection. MENA's economic outlook is subject to substantial downside risks-most notably, intensified global economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions.Part II argues that promoting fair competition is key for MENA countries to complete the transition from an administered to a market economy. Part II first examines current competition policies in MENA countries and to promote fair competition calls for strengthening competition law and enforcement agencies. It also calls for corporatizing state-owned enterprises, promoting the private sector and creating a level-playing field between them. Any moves to reform MENA economies would be aided by professional management of public assets, which could tap into a new source of national wealth.

Current Account --- Economic Growth --- External Balances --- Fiscal Balance --- Oil Exporters --- Oil Importers --- Oil Prices --- Productivity --- Reforms