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Past research on the health workforce can be structured into three perspectives – “health workforce planning” (1960 through 1970s); “the health worker as economic actor” (1980s through 1990s); and “the health worker as necessary resource” (1990s through 2000s). During the first phase, shortages of health workers in developed countries triggered the development of four approaches to project future health worker requirements. We discuss each approach and show that modified versions are experiencing a resurgence in current studies estimating health worker requirements to meet population health goals, such as the United Nations’ health-related Millennium Development Goals. A perceived “cost explosion” in many health systems shifted the focus to the study of the effect of health workers’ behavior on health system efficiency during the second phase. We review the literature on one example topic, health worker licensure. In the last phase, regional health worker shortages in developing countries and local shortages in developed countries led to research on international health worker migration and programs to increase the supply of health workers in underserved areas. Based on our review of existing studies, we suggest areas for future research on the health workforce, including the transfer of existing approaches from developed to developing countries.

Zonder onderwerpscode: economie

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Despite recent international efforts to increase antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage, it is estimated that more than 5 million people who need ART in developing countries do not receive such treatment. Shortages of human resources to treat HIV/AIDS (HRHA) are one of the main constraints to scaling up ART. We develop a discrete-time Markovian model to project the numbers of HRHA required to achieve universal ART coverage, taking into account the positive feedback from HRHA numbers to future HRHA need. Feedback occurs because ART is effective in prolonging the lives of HIV-positive people who need treatment, so that an increase in the number of people receiving treatment leads to an increase in the number of people needing it in future periods. We investigate the steady-state behavior of our model and apply it to different regions in the developing world. We find that taking into account the feedback from the current supply of HRHA to the future HRHA need substantially increases the projected numbers of HRHA required to achieve universal ART coverage. We discuss the policy implications of our model.

Zonder onderwerpscode: economie

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Medical personnel