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Empirical studies suggest that trade reform has a positive effect on employment and income for the poor; however, there are winners and losers. If the transitional costs of trade liberalization fall disproportionately on the poor, trade reform can be designed to mitigate these effects. This includes making reforms as broad based as possible, sequencing and phasing them to allow for adjustment, and implementing social safety nets and other reforms that facilitate adjustment to the new trade policy. In assessing these findings, it should be borne in mind that the links between trade reform and poverty are complex, making systematic empirical investigations difficult.

Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Social Services and Welfare --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- International economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Social welfare & social services --- Trade liberalization --- Income --- Trade policy --- Poverty reduction --- International trade --- National accounts --- Poverty --- Commercial policy --- Economic theory --- Zambia

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We present estimates of welfare by country for 2007 and 2014 using the methodology of Jones and Klenow (2016) which incorporates consumption, leisure, mortality and inequality, and we extend the methodology to include environmental externalities. During the period of the global financial crisis welfare grew slightly more rapidly than income per capita, mainly due to improvements in life expectancy. This led to welfare convergence in most regions towards advanced country levels. Introducing environmental effects changes the welfare ranking for countries that rely heavily on natural resources, highlighting the importance of the natural resource base in welfare. This methodology could provide a theoretically consistent and tractable way of monitoring progress in several Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators.

Macroeconomics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Health Behavior --- Comparative Studies of Countries --- Environment and Development --- Environment and Trade --- Sustainability --- Environmental Accounts and Accounting --- Environmental Equity --- Population Growth --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Health: General --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Health economics --- Climate change --- Income --- Consumption --- Health --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Income inequality --- National accounts --- Environment --- Economics --- Greenhouse gases --- Income distribution --- United States

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While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand as examples, we show that the pandemic will likely have a large and persistent impact on potential output, broadly in line with the experience of advanced economies from past recessions. The impact is driven by employment, capital stock, and productivity losses in the wake of an unprecedented sectoral reallocation, hightened uncertainty, and reduced migration. Maintaining fiscal and monetary policy support until the recovery is firmly entrenched and putting in place a strong structural policy agenda to counter the pandemic’s adverse effects on medium-term potential output will be important to support standards of living and strengthen economic resilience in case of renewed shocks.

Business and Economics --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Economywide Country Studies: Oceania --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial crises --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Pandemics --- COVID-19 (Disease) --- Business and Economics. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economics: General. --- International Economics. --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General. --- Measurement of Economic Growth. --- Aggregate Productivity. --- Cross-Country Output Convergence. --- Economywide Country Studies: Oceania. --- Economic & financial crises & disasters. --- Economics of specific sectors. --- Financial crises. --- Economic sectors. --- Currency crises. --- Informal sector. --- Economics. --- Economic aspects.

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This paper examines how emerging bond markets react to macroeconomic announcements. Global bond spreads respond to rating actions and changes in global interest rates rather than domestic data and policy announcements. All announcements affect market volatility. Data and policy announcements reduce uncertainty and stabilize the trading environment, while rating actions cause greater volatility. Results are broadly robust to country-specific and panel analyses, assuming conditional variance and controlling for the surprise content of news. In subsamples, announcements are found to matter less for countries with more transparent policies and higher credit ratings. In a crisis, rating actions become less important, and investors focus more on simple and timely indicators, like CPI.

Capital assets pricing model. --- Economic indicators. --- Economic policy. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Fiscal Policy --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Finance --- International economics --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Fiscal stance --- Trade balance --- Industrial production --- Short term interest rates --- Financial services industry --- Fiscal policy --- Balance of trade --- Industries --- Interest rates --- United States

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This paper assesses external trade statistics in Lao PDR by looking at mirror statistics, and with reference to international experience in compilation and dissemination of external trade data. We find that exports could be underreported by 8 to 50 percent, while imports could be underreported by 30 to 70 percent, and the trade deficit could be 20 percent to 280 percent higher. Underreporting is concentrated in trade with major partners, including Thailand (17 percent of total trade), China (10 percent of total trade) and Vietnam (3 percent of total trade). On the export side, underreporting is concentrated in wood and wood products, while for imports it is concentrated in a much wider variety of products, including food, fuel, vehicles, machinery, chemical products, plastics and rubber, and construction materials. Possible sources and implications of these discrepancies are discussed.

Investments: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Regulation and Industrial Policy: General --- Retail and Wholesale Trade --- e-Commerce --- Economic History: Transport, Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services: Asia including Middle East --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Factor and Product Markets --- Industry Studies --- Population --- Renewable Resources and Conservation: Issues in International Trade --- Trade: General --- Metals and Metal Products --- Cement --- Glass --- Ceramics --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Imports --- Exports --- Trade balance --- Trade deficits --- Metals --- International trade --- Commodities --- Balance of trade --- Lao People's Democratic Republic