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Unfinished business : the unexplored causes of the financial crisis and the lessons yet to be learned
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ISBN: 9780300225631 0300225636 Year: 2017 Publisher: New Haven (Conn.) : Yale university,

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A penetrating critique tracing how under-regulated trading between European and U.S. banks led to the 2008 financial crisis-with a prescription for preventing another meltdown There have been numerous books examining the 2008 financial crisis from either a U.S. or European perspective. Tamim Bayoumi is the first to explain how the Euro crisis and U.S. housing crash were, in fact, parasitically intertwined. Starting in the 1980s, Bayoumi outlines the cumulative policy errors that undermined the stability of both the European and U.S. financial sectors, highlighting the catalytic role played by European mega banks that exploited lax regulation to expand into the U.S. market and financed unsustainable bubbles on both continents. U.S. banks increasingly sold sub-par loans to under-regulated European and U.S. shadow banks and, when the bubbles burst, the losses whipsawed back to the core of the European banking system. A much-needed, fresh look at the origins of the crisis, Bayoumi's analysis concludes that policy makers are ignorant of what still needs to be done both to complete the cleanup and to prevent future crises.


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A Formal Model of Optimum Currency Areas
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ISBN: 1462363164 1455205079 1281601144 9786613781833 145529778X Year: 1994 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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A model of optimum currency areas is presented using a general equilibrium model with regionally differentiated goods. The choice of a currency union depends upon the size of the underlying disturbances, the correlation between these disturbances, the costs of transactions across currencies, factor mobility across regions, and the interrelationships between demand for different goods. It is found that, while a currency union can raise the welfare of the regions within the union, it unambiguously lowers welfare for those outside the union.


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Aging Population and Canadian Public Pension Plans
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ISBN: 1462309607 145527271X 1281387282 1455220132 9786613779953 Year: 1994 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Canadian public pension plans are run on a "pay-as-you-go" basis. As the baby boom ages, contribution rates for the two main plans are projected to rise significantly, from their current level of around 5 percent of eligible earnings to over 13 percent by 2030. An alternative is to set contribution rates at their underlying long-term levels. Such a policy would imply a significant rise in current contribution rates, to 10-10½ percent of eligible earnings, but would allow the system to cope with the retirement of the baby boom generation without recourse to borrowing or significant increases in contribution rates.


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Estimating Trade Equations from Aggregate Bilateral Data
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ISBN: 1462347975 1452734119 1281345547 9786613779113 1451895976 Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper uses bilateral data on 420 merchandise trade flows between 21 industrial countries are used to estimate standard trade equations. The data set of over 11,000 observations allows the underlying elasticities to be estimated with considerable precision. Remarkably, a single specification appears to explain behavior across these countries in spite of the large number of individual flows analyzed. The results indicate a powerful long-run effect from supply on exports. Also, the real exchange rate elasticity depends upon the behavior of third country exchange rates. There is evidence of pricing to market and of a J-curve.


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Financial Innovation and Consumption in the United Kingdom
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ISBN: 1462342892 Year: 1990 Publisher: [Place of publication not identified] International Monetary Fund

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The Morning After : Explaining the Slowdown in Japanese Growth in the 1990's
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ISBN: 1462389449 1452787646 1281604070 9786613784766 1451891075 Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper uses vector autoregressions (VARs) to investigate four explanations of the extended slump in Japanese economic activity during the 1990s: the absence of bold and consistent fiscal stimulus; limited room for expansionary monetary policy because of a liquidity trap; asset price deflation reflecting the long-term problems caused by overinvestment, inadequate returns on saving, and debt overhang; and disruption of financial intermediation. The results indicate that disruption in financial intermediation, largely operating through the impact of changes in domestic asset prices on bank lending, has been the principal case of the slump.


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Explaining Consumption : A Simple Test of Alternative Hypotheses
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ISBN: 1462374239 1452759359 1283556286 1451894503 9786613868732 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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A method of testing the relative importance for consumption of risk sharing behavior and changes in current income is proposed and estimated using data across Canadian provinces. The focus of the estimation is less on whether or not the risk sharing model can be rejected than on how much each of these hypotheses can contribute to explaining overall variation in consumption. Both types of behavior are found to be statistically significant, but the risk sharing model is found to explain considerably more of the growth in consumption than does changes in income.


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U.S. State and Local Government Finances Over the Current Cycle
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ISBN: 1462360017 1455224308 1282110209 1455279684 9786613803092 Year: 1992 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The recent slowdown in the U.S. economy has led to state and local government tax increases and expenditure cuts that have lowered aggregate demand, in contrast to earlier downturns when the sector provided significant automatic stabilizers. Several explanations for this change are examined, including the role of federal grants, mandates, tax revolts, and compensation. The first three factors are found to be relatively unimportant. There does, however, appear to have been a large change in relative compensation over the 1980s, which can account for much of the deterioration in finances.


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Who Needs Bands? Exchange Rate Policy Before Emu
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ISBN: 1462364160 1452793670 1281225045 9786613777775 1451989121 Year: 1995 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Two issues are discussed. The first is which countries might benefit from entry into EMU before the millennium. Germany and her immediate neighbors appear the most likely to gain; however, our knowledge is too uncertain to say whether all, some, or no countries would reap net economic benefits. The second issue is how to avoid exchange rate instability in the transition to EMU. Experience from earlier exchange rate regimes suggests that an early announcement the parities at which different currencies would enter EMU could reduce such instability if governments were willing to accept the required limitations on domestic policies.

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