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A North Korean government collapse would have serious consequences, including a humanitarian disaster and civil war. The Republic of Korea and the United States can help mitigate the consequences, seeking unification by being prepared to deliver humanitarian aid in the North, stop conflict, demilitarize the North Korean military over time, secure and eliminate North Korean weapons of mass destruction, and manage Chinese intervention.

Failed states -- Korea (North). --- Korea (North) -- Economic conditions -- 21st century. --- Korea (North) -- Foreign relations -- United States. --- Korea (North) -- Politics and government -- 2011. --- Korean reunification question (1945- ). --- United States -- Foreign relations -- Korea (North). --- Failed states --- Korean reunification question (1945- ) --- Korea (North) --- United States --- Economic conditions --- Foreign relations --- Politics and government --- Korean unification question (1945- ) --- Reunification of Korea (1945- ) --- Unification of Korea (1945- ) --- State failure --- Korean People's Republic --- People's Democratic Republic of Korea --- Koreĭskai︠a︡ Narodno-Demokraticheskai︠a︡ Respublika --- Korea (North Korean Government) --- Democratic People's Republic of Korea --- North Korea --- KNDR --- Chʻao-hsien min chu chu i jen min kung ho kuo --- Koreai Népi Demokratikus Köztársaság --- Korea (Democratic People's Republic) --- K.N.D.R. --- K.R.L.D. --- Korea (People's Democratic Republic) --- Korean People's Democratic Republic --- Chōsen Minshu Shugi Jinmin Kyōwakoku --- Chosŏn Minjujuŭi Inmin Konghwaguk --- KRLD --- Koreańska Republika Ludowo-Demokratyczna --- Kūriyā al-Dīmuqrāṭīyah --- D.P.R.K. --- DPRK --- Corée du Nord --- República Popular Democrática de Corea --- Corea (North) --- North Korean Interim Government --- Chosun Minchu-chui Inmin Konghwa-guk --- Political science --- Chaoxian minzhu zhuyi renmin gongheguo --- 朝鲜民主主义人民共和国

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"For years, the Republic of Korea (ROK/South Korea) has pursued a policy of peaceful reunification with North Korea. Many in the ROK believe that the ROK would take the lead in any instance of unification, in large part because the ROK dominates North Korea economically, demographically, and in numerous other ways. Indeed, then-ROK President Park Geun-hye and then-U.S. President Barack Obama made a joint declaration in 2013 that pledged to work toward a "peaceful reunification based on the principles of denuclearization, democracy, and a free market economy." Yet North Korean propaganda indoctrinates that country's elites to believe that ROK-led unification would be a disaster for them, one so awful that they are unlikely to even survive. Unless these North Korean elite views can be changed, it is hard to imagine how peaceful unification could ever be achieved. This report examines what could be done to convince North Korean elites that unification would be good for them. It describes five areas of concern that North Korean elites would likely have about the outcomes of unification and proposes policies that the ROK government could adopt that would give North Korean elites hope that unification would be acceptable for them. The author proposes unification policies in these five areas of concern that the ROK government should consider with urgency; it may take years for North Korean elites to believe that the ROK is prepared to act in a manner favorable to them, and it is unclear that unification is that far off"--Publisher's description.

Korean reunification question (1945- ) --- Korean unification question (1945- ) --- Reunification of Korea (1945- ) --- Unification of Korea (1945- ) --- Korea (North) --- Korea (South) --- Korean People's Republic --- People's Democratic Republic of Korea --- Koreĭskai︠a︡ Narodno-Demokraticheskai︠a︡ Respublika --- Korea (North Korean Government) --- Democratic People's Republic of Korea --- North Korea --- KNDR --- Chʻao-hsien min chu chu i jen min kung ho kuo --- Koreai Népi Demokratikus Köztársaság --- Korea (Democratic People's Republic) --- K.N.D.R. --- K.R.L.D. --- Korea (People's Democratic Republic) --- Korean People's Democratic Republic --- Chōsen Minshu Shugi Jinmin Kyōwakoku --- Chosŏn Minjujuŭi Inmin Konghwaguk --- KRLD --- Koreańska Republika Ludowo-Demokratyczna --- Kūriyā al-Dīmuqrāṭīyah --- D.P.R.K. --- DPRK --- Corée du Nord --- República Popular Democrática de Corea --- Corea (North) --- North Korean Interim Government --- Chosun Minchu-chui Inmin Konghwa-guk --- Chaoxian minzhu zhuyi renmin gongheguo --- 朝鲜民主主义人民共和国 --- USAMGIK --- United States Army Military Government in Korea --- Taehan Minʼguk --- Han guo --- Dae Han Min Kuk --- Tae Han Min Guk --- Daehan-Minʼguk --- South Korea --- Tai Han Min Kook --- South Korean Interim Government --- S.K.I.G. --- SKIG --- Nam Chosŏn Kwado Chŏngbu --- Namjosŏn --- Namjosŏn Kwado Chŏngbu --- Republic of Korea --- Da Han Minguo --- Daehan Min-kuk --- Daikan Minkoku --- ROK --- 대한민국 --- 大韓民國 --- 대한 민국 --- Daehanminguk --- Economic policy --- Economic conditions --- Social conditions --- Politics and government --- E-books --- Ȯmnȯd Solongos --- Emu̇nedu̇ Solungus --- Solongos (South) --- Solungus (South) --- Bu̇gd Naĭramdakh Solongos Uls --- Bu̇gu̇de Nayiramdaqu Solungus Ulus --- I︠U︡zhnai︠a︡ Korei︠a︡ --- Южная Корея --- Korei︠a︡ (South) --- Корея (South) --- BNSU --- БНСУ

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Biological weapons. --- Bioterrorism --- Biological warfare --- Prevention.

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This report documents the Joint Contingency Model (JICM), a global war gaming and analysis system that focuses on conflict from major regional contingencies through strategic warfare. The JICM is an outgrowth of the former RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS), engineered explicitly to address post-Cold War conflict issues. The JICM has been developed to support balance assessment, contingency analysis, and military training. It handles issues such as strategic mobility, ground combat maneuver and fires (including systems like ATACMS and future technological advances), the activities involved in achieving air or sea superiority, the ability to apply naval and aircraft fires against infrastructure targets or military forces in the field, and supplies and support of military forces. JICM is unique in its attempt to address qualitative factors such as unit cohesion and specialization, training, and national force effectiveness. It also deals with discontinuities in warfare such a breakthroughs and the failure of assaults. It is a global system because it includes, as part of its release, order of battle data for most major countries worldwide, relieving JICM users of the burden of having to develop such information. It also includes base cases covering conflicts in the Persian Gulf and Korea. Thus, the JICM comes as a ready-to-use package, though users will also find it easy to develop new theaters for analysis in the JICM.

Computer war games. --- World politics --- Computer simulation. --- JICM.

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There is significant interest in Korean unification in both North Korea and South Korea. In South Korea, most discussion of unification is based on the assumption that South Korean leaders would control the process because that country's economy and world stature significantly dominate North Korea's. But there are many ways in which unification could occur or be attempted, and each holds vast uncertainties. The literature identifies three possible unification contexts (major war, collapse of North Korea's regime, or peace), across which the author of this report describes nine alternative paths and seven challenges to any potential unification of Korea. He assesses the likelihood of each path and recommends actions that South Korea and the United States could take to achieve a more favorable outcome. The author concludes that South Korea should avoid many of the described paths-especially those involving war or a North Korea-led unification. South Korea needs to develop policies now that would provide most North Korean elites with a friendly outcome from unification. Likely the best path for unification is associated with a collapse of the North Korean regime and involves working with the government that replaces Kim Jong-un to achieve a negotiated unification; such a process would take many years.

Korean reunification question (1945- ) --- Korea (North) --- Korea (South) --- Relations --- Politics and government