Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

We study 1,400 UK syndicated loans, together with the financial history of the lead bank and the borrowing firm. We interpret abnormal equity returns around loan announcements as the value of the lending relationship to the firm. We find that: (i) Consistent with previous evidence, the value of lending is higher when the firm is riskier or more opaque, suggesting that it primarily reflects the lead bank’s screening and monitoring activities. (ii) As a bank becomes larger, more profitable or more capitalized, the value of its loans first increases and then decreases. The largest, most capitalised or most profitable banks do not give the most valuable loans. (iii) Firms which receive low-value loans are more likely to experience low profitability and financial distress during the lending relationship. By relating the state of bank balance sheets to borrower performance, we offer a new angle to evaluate the impact of financial conditions on the real economy.

Loans. --- Financial statements. --- Balance sheets --- Corporate financial statements --- Earnings statements --- Financial reports --- Income statements --- Operating statements --- Profit and loss statements --- Statements, Financial --- Accounting --- Bookkeeping --- Business records --- Corporation reports --- Borrowing --- Lending --- Loans for consumption --- Finance --- Credit --- Investments --- Loans --- Financial statements --- E-books --- Banks and Banking --- Investments: Stocks --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Information and Market Efficiency --- Event Studies --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Banking --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Monetary economics --- Investment & securities --- Bank credit --- Stocks --- Financial institutions --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Money --- Syndicated loans --- Banks and banking --- Finance, Public --- United Kingdom

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.

Econometrics --- Inflation --- Economic Theory --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Output gap --- Potential output --- Structural vector autoregression --- Supply shocks --- Production --- Econometric analysis --- Economic theory --- Supply and demand --- United Kingdom

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

We first illustrate that emerging markets (EMs) face a shortage of financial assets, with financial assets not growing as rapidly as domestic savings. We then estimate the asset shortage in EMs for 1995-2008. We develop a model that explains how asset shortage develop, and then econometrically estimate the causes of asset shortages. We conclude with policy implications.

Assets (Accounting) --- Capital market --- Saving and investment --- Asset requirements --- Accumulation, Capital --- Capital accumulation --- Capital formation --- Investment and saving --- Saving and thrift --- Capital --- Supply-side economics --- Wealth --- Investments --- Capital markets --- Market, Capital --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Loans --- Money market --- Securities --- Crowding out (Economics) --- Efficient market theory --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Public Finance --- Investment --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Money and Interest Rates: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Pensions --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Pension spending --- Foreign assets --- Stocks --- Securities markets --- Financial markets --- Expenditure --- External position --- Investments, Foreign --- China, People's Republic of

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper documents five facts about inflation expectations in the euro area. First, individual inflation forecasts overreact to individual news. Second, the cross-section average of individual forecasts of inflation underreact to shocks initially, but overreacts in the medium term. Third, disagreement about future inflation increases in response to news when the current inflation is high, and declines when inflation is low, consistent with a zero lower bound of expectations. Fourth, overreaction of individual inflation forecasts to news increased after the global financial crisis (GFC). Fifth, the reaction of average expectations (and of actual inflation) to shocks became more muted post-GFC in the euro area, but not in the U.S.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Inflation --- Banks and Banking --- Industries: Energy --- Economic Theory --- Forecasting --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Money and Interest Rates: General --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Expectations --- Speculations --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Finance --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Economic Forecasting --- Zero lower bound --- Financial services --- Oil production --- Production --- Supply shocks --- Economic theory --- Economic forecasting --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Interest rates --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Supply and demand --- Spain

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector, general-equilibrium model that accounts for unique demand and supply characteristics of commodities. The results show fragmentation-induced output losses can be sizable, especially for Low-Income-Countries, although the magnitudes vary according to the particular scenarios and modelling assumptions. Our work demonstrates that not accounting for granular commodity production and trade linkages leads to underestimation of the output losses associated with trade fragmentation.

China, People's Republic of